Austin Riley could have a big 2026 campaign.
Atlanta Braves third baseman Austin Riley has endured back-to-back challenging seasons. Riley played in exactly 159 games in both 2022 and 2023 and earned All-Star selections in each season. In 2024 and 2025, however, Riley did not play in more than 110 games in either campaign. Additionally, his performance declined.
So, can Riley bounce back if healthy in 2026? The underlying numbers suggest it is a strong possibility -- although there is reason for some concern.
Austin Riley's Underlying Numbers
Riley hit .260/.309/.428 with a .737 OPS in 2025. In his 102 games played, the third baseman recorded 16 home runs and 20 doubles. Meanwhile, in 2022 he hit 38 home runs and had an .878 OPS, and in 2023 Riley had 37 long balls and an .861 OPS.
What led to Riley's underperformance? Missing time makes it difficult to develop consistency so that may have played a role. The biggest problem was strikeouts, though. Riley's 28.6 percent strikeout rate was the second highest mark of his career, trailing only his rookie season back in 2019.
Riley has had some strikeout concerns in the past, but in 2022 and 2023 he struck out only around 24 percent of the time. That ranked below average in baseball, but it was not necessarily abysmal. Riley's 2025 strikeout percentage ranked in the seventh percentile in the sport, however.
Another concern was Riley's walk percentage. He turned in a 6.0 mark in 2025, which was in the 22nd percentile and also represented the second-worst mark of his career.
There is still reason for hope. In 2025, Riley ranked in the 92nd percentile in barrel percentage, 91st percentile in average exit velocity and 88th percentile in hard-hit percentage. Riley's bat speed was in the 93rd percentile as well.
The hope is that Riley is not turning into a boom-or-bust player. If he wants to become a superstar once again, Riley will need to develop more all-around consistency at the plate. He has to figure out a way to walk more and strike out less. Riley has displayed the ability to do both of those things in the past, so it is not difficult to imagine him getting back on track if healthy in 2026.
Overall decline surely is not a factor at only 28 years old. 2026 could certainly end up being a big season for Austin Riley as he looks to help the Braves return to the postseason.