How Much Should the Atlanta Braves Offer Sonny Gray if He Reaches Free Agency?

The Atlanta Braves could make sense as a landing spot for Sonny Gray if the veteran right-hander reaches free agency this winter.

Mark Feinsand reported on MLB.com that the Boston Red Sox will likely be among Gray's primary suitors, which makes sense considering how well he pitched this year. However, some around the league believe he may prefer a team closer to his home.

"Gray has said he plans to pitch in his age-37 season, hoping to finally get the chance to win his first World Series. The Red Sox will likely be among his primary suitors, though some believe he might prefer to join a team closer geographically to his home in Tennessee," Feinsand wrote.

That does not mean Atlanta is actively pursuing Gray, but the fit is easy to understand. The Braves finished 94-68 and won the National League East. 

They have the kind of roster that could appeal to a pitcher still hoping to win his first World Series. Atlanta is also geographically closer to Tennessee than Boston, which could matter if location becomes part of Gray's decision.

Gray is coming off a strong season with the Red Sox. He went 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 149 strikeouts across 169 innings in 29 regular season starts. He also made one postseason start, allowing two runs over 4 2/3 innings in the AL Wild Card Series against the New York Yankees. He will be one of the best starters if he becomes available.

Gray's current deal includes a $30 million mutual option for 2027 with Boston, and both sides would have to exercise it for him to remain under that arrangement. The option is widely expected to be declined, which would allow him to test free agency unless the two sides agree on a new deal.

Gray was visibly frustrated after being pulled early from his Game 2 start against the Yankees, saying he believed he was the best pitcher in the AL through the order a third time and wanted to be trusted in that moment. Those comments raised questions about his future with Boston even before the postseason ended.

The Braves need to add reliable arms to their rotation. Their 94 wins secured the division, but a deep postseason run depends on having reliable starters behind Chris Sale.

If Gray reaches free agency, Atlanta should be willing to offer a two-year deal in the range of $50 to $55 million, which would average out to around $25 to $27 million per year.

That number reflects his age and injury history while still being competitive enough to draw serious consideration from a pitcher who will have other options.

A shorter term with a vesting option for a third year based on innings pitched could also make the structure more appealing to both sides. The Braves should not overpay given his age, but being in the conversation is worth the investment if the rotation picture does not improve elsewhere this winter.