Elite underlying metrics and a revitalized sinker reveal why the Milwaukee Brewers’ high-stakes acquisition of Dustin May could be the move that secures a pennant.
When the Milwaukee Brewers acquired Dustin May at the MLB trade deadline, many fans immediately focused on one statistic.
May entered Milwaukee with a 4.38 ERA across 108 innings with the St. Louis Cardinals this season, leading some to question whether the Brewers had paid too much to acquire him.
A deeper look at his performance tells a much different story.
Several underlying metrics suggest May may have been the second-best starting pitcher available at the trade deadline behind new Los Angeles Dodgers ace Tarik Skubal. This made him a potentially critical addition as Milwaukee pursues a World Series appearance.
His recent career path also provides important context.
May has battled through an extraordinary series of injuries, including Tommy John surgeries in 2021 and 2023, along with a torn esophagus in 2024.
Those setbacks contributed to a difficult 2025 season split between the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox.
May posted a 4.96 ERA, 4.88 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP in 132.1 innings across 25 appearances (23 starts) with Los Angeles and Boston last year.
His fastball velocity declined from the level he showed during his best years with the Dodgers, while opposing hitters consistently found success against his sinker.
Everything changed during the 2026 offseason.
Before signing a one-year, $12.5 million contract with the Cardinals, May adjusted his sinker grip by adopting a one-seam orientation designed to create more seam-shifted wake. And it allowed the baseball to generate greater downward movement through its aerodynamics.
His velocity also returned to the 96-97 mph range on both of his fastballs.
The numbers don’t lie
After giving up 13 earned runs over his first 7.1 innings across two starts this season, May quietly became one of MLB’s best pitchers according to the metrics pitchers control most: strikeouts, walks, and home runs, as reflected by FIP.
Between May 1 and July 29, his final start with St. Louis, May ranked eighth in MLB with a 2.88 FIP among pitchers who threw at least 70 innings.
During that same span, his 4.02 ERA in 78.1 innings did not fully reflect how well he pitched.
By those underlying measures, May rated as the best starting pitcher traded during the final three months before the deadline.
One area where he particularly excels is limiting home runs, surrendering just 0.63 Home Runs Per Nine Innings (HR/9).
That profile explains why Milwaukee was willing to invest significant value to acquire him.
May immediately rewarded the Brewers earning the victory in his debut yesterday. He gave up two runs on two hits (one home run) with five strikeouts and three walks in six innings in Milwaukee’s 5-2 home victory against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
May’s upside
Beyond the numbers, May has earned widespread respect for his perseverance. Few pitchers have overcome the number of serious injuries he has faced while continuing to work his way back to MLB.
His determination and willingness to adapt have become defining characteristics of his career.
He also possesses the mentality teams want in a frontline starter. May attacks hitters aggressively, trusts his stuff, and continues adjusting rather than allowing setbacks to define him.
That resilience, combined with his physical talent, gives Milwaukee another experienced arm capable of making an impact as the team pursues a deep postseason run.
