Analytics Suggest Two Cardinals Could be Poised for Huge 2027 Seasons

While the second half of JJ Wetherholt’s rookie season ended with more of a thud than the St. Louis Cardinals would have liked, advanced metrics show that the standout rookie was actually one of MLB’s unluckiest hitters in 2026 and he could be in for a big rebound in 2027.

Alec Burleson, MLB’s leader in RBI and the Cardinals’ team leader in several major offensive categories, was also deemed to have been an unlucky hitter in 2026, lending hope to the fact that Burleson’s stardom as a slugger could be about to take off in 2027.

Wetherholt’s final statistics show that he hit .242 with a .365 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA (weighted on-base average – a statistic that accounts for how a player reached base and it gives credit for extra-base hits over singles and walks). However, based on the quality of contact that Wetherholt made in his 619 plate appearances, his “expected” numbers should have been a .255 batting average, a .435 slugging percentage that would have been 70 points higher and a wOBA of .347.

The difference between Wetherholt’s actual numbers and his expected numbers – projections that take into account his exit velocities and the launch angle of his balls off the bat – is called the “composite luck gap.” Wetherholt’s minus-.112 “composite luck gap” ranked fifth in MLB in 2026, behind Philadelphia Phillies catcher JT Realmuto (minus-.142), Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (minus-.117) and Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager (minus-.080).

Cardinals' Standout Alec Burleson Graded Out as MLB's Best Receiver at First Base 

As for Burleson, he ranked as MLB’s 20th unluckiest hitter – even though he hit career-best numbers in most major offensive statistical categories. Burleson hit .279, slugged .473 and had a wOBA of .353, but his expected numbers based on the quality of his contact were a .289 batting average, a .522 slugging percentage and a .374 wOBA.

“We talked about this a ton, but when Burleson first got up here (for his first full MLB season in 2023), he had some of the biggest differentials in terms of actuals and expected numbers, and there were just a lot of factors pointing toward us thinking that this guy was going to be a really good hitter,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said of the club sticking with Burleson in 2023 even though his numbers weren’t dynamic. “Now, he’s just been a very consistent hitter and he shows up and he’s the same guy every day.

“And what JJ was doing prior to his (right wrist tendinitis) injury was so impressive. He was fighting through the wrist pain there, but we still firmly believe that there is a super high ceiling for him offensively as well as defensively.”

Then, there’s also this as it relates to Burleson, who cranked a career-best 26 home runs in 2026: He was MLB’s third unluckiest hitter in terms of long balls with him losing a projected 7.4 homers based on stadium factors and weather conditions, per BallparkPal.com. The MLB research platform analyzes ballpark factors and weather conditions and how they impact hitters.

Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds was deemed the unluckiest hitter in terms of homers lost at minus-8.2, while Detroit Tigers’ outfielder Riley Greene (minus-7.7) was second and Burleson (minus-7.4) was third.

The extra seven home runs would have boosted Burleson’s home run total to 33, to go with his 116 RBI and 27 doubles and likely strengthened his chances of winning the Silver Slugger award at first base. Already, Burleson was the first Cardinals player to lead MLB in RBI in 55 years, dating back to former National League Most Valuable Player Joe Torre in 1971.