Outfielder's Future with Cardinals Could Depend on Plate Discipline

Growth, as St. Louis Cardinals’ manager Oliver Marmol pointed out repeatedly over the final month of the 2026 season, can be measured in a variety of ways.

One way, of course, is the standings – an area where the Cardinals fell back a win from 2025 (78-84) to 2026 (77-85), one that was somewhat expected with the widespread youth on the roster and the club selling off veteran pitchers JoJo Romero and Dustin May for prospects at the MLB Trade Deadline.

Instead, the Cardinals tried to evaluate areas of growth in non-traditional ways in a non-traditional season in St. Louis.

Growth was having a defined core group of players – Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy and Riley O’Brien – take major steps in their games and evolve into building blocks.

Growth was seeing Leo Bernal, Joshua Baez, Quinn Mathews, Cooper Hjerpe and Nathan Church live up to the hype that followed them from the Minor Leagues and show signs they can be depended on going forward.

Growth was Andre Pallante and Gordon Graceffo shaking off the struggles of 2025 and showing the fortitude to change the trajectory of their careers.

“This is a really young group, but there’s been a lot of progress with so many of these guys,” Marmol said. “You can go up and down the lineup and you see growth from so many of our guys. Then, go to the rotation and what McGreevy, Pallante and Leahy did this season, and the bullpen as well. Our staff has really enjoyed pouring into that group. They are hungry for information and they want to be coaches, so that’s made it a lot of fun.”

However, as president of baseball operation Chaim Bloom reminds, the Cardinals still have major gulfs between them and MLB’s top teams. The National League champion Brewers, after all, finished 26 games ahead of St. Louis and battered the Cards in 11 of 13 head-to-head meetings. Much more growth is needed for the Cards to better navigate the difference the rebuilding and contending.

With growth being the focus, let’s look back at the performances by individual players in the 2026 season and how they will figure into the Cards’ plans going forward in 2027 and beyond:

Player name: Nathan Church

Age: 26

How acquired: Selected by the Cardinals in the 11th round of the 2022 MLB Draft

2026 statistics: 142 games, .247/.290/.364/.654, 53 runs, 107 hits, 17 doubles, two triples, 10 home runs, 50 RBI, 81 strikeouts, 25 walks, 10 stolen bases in 15 tries

Key numbers: After a slow start offensively, Church was more selective at the plate late in the season and he hit .282 in August and .280 with six doubles in a strong September. He must improve on his 41.3 percent chase rate, a number that ranks in MLB’s bottom 4th percentile.

Looking back to 2026: Following a forgettable cameo in 2025 when he made his MLB debut, Church made the Opening Day roster in 2026 and became the team’s starting lefty fielder with Lars Nootbaar recovering from offseason surgery. Then, on June 9, Church took over in center field when Victor Scott II was demoted to Triple-A Memphis because of his offensive struggles. The Cardinals have pressed the 26-year-old Church to be more selective at the plate as his 41.3 percent chase rate out of the strike zone led to a woeful .290 on-base percentage. Church did show some surprising pop by hitting 10 home runs – five of which came in April. Home runs at Washington on April 7 and in Atlanta on July 2 were two of his biggest hits of the season.

Looking forward to 2027: To win the everyday job in center field, Church must continue to improve offensively and be more disciplined at the plate. His whiff rate (20.5 percent) and strikeout rate (17.2 percent) are in MLB’s top third in terms of percentile, but his chase rate (42.3 percent) and walk rate (5.3 percent) are major areas of concern. On the other side of the ball, Church is a plus defender who plays fearlessly when it comes to running down fly balls in the gaps or at the wall. And his throwing arm is one of the strongest and most accurate on the team.

Denton’s analysis: The Cardinals have shown in recent years with Michael Siani and Scott that they are seeking a center fielder who can be a difference-maker as a hitter. Tai Peete and Josiah Ragsdale are two of the fastest-rising players in the Cardinals Minor League system, and they could be poised to grab the center field job if Church fails to make strides at the plate this offseason. His .290 on-base percentage must improve if he is going to be the team’s everyday center fielder for years to come.