Riley O'Brien leads the National League in saves with 35, but the Cardinals closer has blown two saves and lost four times since the break for the MLB All-Star Game. Also, many of the downward statistical metrics seem to signal trouble for the 31-year-old All-Star reliever.
By any statistical measurement, it’s been a wildly successful season for Cardinals closer Riley O’Brien, who leads the National League in saves with 35.
Not only is it his first MLB season without a demotion to the Minor Leagues at some point, but the 31-year-old reliever also reached the MLB All-Star Game in a year that has clearly been the best of his career.
However, it’s likely difficult to savor any of those successes with the failures that the hard-throwing O’Brien has had to endure since the break for the MLB All-Star Game. Including Thursday’s loss when he surrendered a two-run, walk-off double to Teoscar Hernandez in the Dodgers 3-2 victory, O’Brien has suffered four losses and two blown saves over the second half of the stretch.
“You get to the ninth with the lead and take your shot,” manager Oliver Marmol said following Thursday’s loss that cost the Cardinals a chance to sweep the Dodgers and potentially move within two games of the final Wild Card slot. “But unfortunately, we weren’t able to close it out.”
The carnage from some of O’Brien’s game-ending meltdowns have tempered an otherwise stellar season for the pitcher in his first full season closing games. On May 10th, he had the Padres down to their final strike before surrendering a game-tying, two-run homer to Nick Castellanos -- a game the Cards went on to lose in the 10th inning. O'Brien responded well to that potential confidence-shattering collapse, racking up saves in 14 of his next 15 opportunities.
However, he’s been walked off three times in the season’s second half – by the Angels on July 20 (two hits, two hit batters, a walk and two earned runs); most improbably by the Phillies on Aug. 23 (five hits, a walk, a homer and six earned runs); and by the Dodgers on Thursday night (two hits, a walk and two earned runs).
O’Brien’s save percentage – 35 saves in 41 tries – is not far off what MLB leader Bryan Baker (39 of 42), Cleveland’s Cade Smith (35 of 40), San Diego star Mason Miller (32 of 34) and Toronto’s Luis Varland (32 of 33) have done this season. O’Brien has had scoreless outings in 33 of his 35 saves this season.
However, he’s given up 11 earned runs in 19 games since the All-Star break. His biggest meltdown came on Aug. 23 in Philadelphia, when he came into a 4-0 game and the Cardinals statistically had a 99.6 percent chance to win after he recorded two outs in the ninth. However, the Cards could only look on in horror when the next five batters reached – three of them after getting to two strikes. Ultimately, Kyle Schwarber dug out of an 0-2 count and hit a center-cut sinker from O’Brien 459 feet and over the batter’s eye in center field for walk-off homer that capped a six-run rally.
Said Marmol of O’Brien’s struggles: “You’re up 4-0 and you should be able to take that one, but it’s unfortunate. That’s Riley’s game and we’re not bringing in (Gordon) Graceffo or anybody else in that game. He’s got to be able to finish on his own, and it’s unfortunate.”
Part of O’Brien’s problem of late is that he’s had trouble throwing his sweeper for strikes and hitters aren’t chasing after it, turning him into a one-pitch pitcher. On the season, O’Brien has thrown his sinker 60 percent of the time and his sweeper 30 percent of the time. In addition to hitters smacking seven doubles and two homers off his sinker, O’Brien has seen the opposition’s batting average go from .228 in 2025 to .263 this season against his sweeper.
Deeper pitch analytics also show some areas of concern for O’Brien and the Cards. His walk rate (9.9 percent) has plunged to MLB’s 31st percentile, while his hard-hit rate (42.5 percent) is at the 18th percentile mark.
Foes that barreled him up just 3.2 percent of the time in 2025 are doing so at a 7.2 percent clip this season. Also, his ground ball rate has gone down (55.2 percent in 2025 to 47.7 percent in 2026), his line drive rate has jumped (24 percent in 2025 to 30.7 percent in 2026) and his ability to generate weak contact has dropped (11.2 percent in 2025 to 6.5 percent in 2026).
Until other options arise, O’Brien is the Cardinals' closer for the foreseeable future, Marmol confirmed.
"I feel bad for Riley right now because this guy's given us a really good year," Marmol said recently. "But he's our closer and he just hasn’t been able to get it done over some of these last few games."
