Should Cardinals Value Offense Over Defense in Roster Reconstruction?

“Defense wins championships!”

Well, about that theory …

While that might have been true in the NFL decades ago, and it might still be a theory some strongly believe in all sports, it’s just not entirely true any longer in MLB.

The back-to-back champion Dodgers, heavy favorites to win a third straight World Series this fall, have relied more on a deep and talented pitching staff and a balanced offensive attack than their defense. In 2024, the Dodgers were 19th in MLB in Outs Above Average – a metric created in 2026 to measure the impact specific players and team defenses can have on games.

The Dodgers were significantly better defensively in 2025, ranking 10th in MLB with 14 Outs Above Average. This season, the Dodgers ranked 12th in Outs Above Average.

Among MLB’s 12 playoff teams in 2026, only seven of them ranked in the top 12 in Outs Above Average. That means that five clubs that played stellar defense – the Dbacks, Cardinals, Rangers, Royals and Blue Jays throughout the 162-game season – failed to even qualify for the postseason.

While there are some wild variations between Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved – two of the top metrics used to determine defensive value – only seven playoff teams ranked in the league’s top 12 in DRS. The Dodgers’ DRS rankings the past three seasons: ninth (2026), third (2025) and third (2024).   

The Rays, the American League’s No. 1 seed, ranked just 15th in Outs Above Average this season, while the top-seeded Brewers were fifth in OAA. However, in terms of DRS, the Rays ranked second because of their strong defensive play at shortstop and in the outfield, while Milwaukee came in at fifth in particular defensive category.

At the bottom of the defensive rung, there were 14 MLB teams that had a negative Outs Above Average differential in 2026. Of those 14 teams, only three – the Yankees (minus-2 OAA), Houston (minus-13 OAA) and Philadelphia (minus-17 OAA) made the playoffs. The eight worst defenses – Washington, Pittsburgh, Mets, Colorado, Detroit, Angels, Athletics and Seattle – all missed the playoffs.      

This, of course, is information that the St. Louis Cardinals – a team that has always prided themselves their vast collection of Gold Gloves and their traditionally strong defense – could use while constructing their roster in the years ahead.

Cardinals Standout Rookie Notches First of Likely Many Awards for Stellar 2026

The Cardinals, a franchise with an MLB-most 100 Gold Gloves in its storied history, could capture two more top defensive honors this season with rookie second baseman JJ Wetherholt and flashy shortstop Masyn Winn leading their positions in Outs Above Average at their positions among fellow National League players. That stellar glove work on the interior of the defense wasn’t a significant difference-maker with the Cardinals finishing at 77-85 and missing the playoffs for a fourth straight season.

Winn is arguably the game’s most electrifying defensive shortstop, but would the Cardinals be better served with a shortstop with a more dynamic OPS+ than the 80 (20 percent blow league average) that Winn posted in a disappointing 2026? Clearly in need of stability at third base, would the Cardinals be wise to push Minor League sluggers Rainiel Rodriguez or Jesus Baez toward the hot corner for the offense they can potentially provide? Or would the Cardinals be wise to spend whatever salary cap dollars are available to them on a third baseman who can make more of a difference with his bat than his glove?

Are the Cardinals willing to overlook the defensive struggles that rookie Joshua Baez had in left field during his 2026 cameo for his 30-homer potential in the years ahead? Should they ignore Ivan Herrera’s lack of success in throwing out base stealers (1 for 38 in 2026) and make him their everyday catcher because of the offensive production he offers. Does the late-season arrival of Leo Bernal and his 21 RBI in 24 games make that question a moot point because of his high ceiling as a switch-hitting catcher?