Cubs vs. Padres: Who Has the Pitching Edge in Game 2?

The pitching matchup is set between the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres for Game 2 of the Wild Card Series on Wednesday night.

Nick Pivetta takes the ball for the Padres, looking to send them to the NLDS, while the Cubs turn to Kevin Gausman with their season on the brink.

Craig Counsell’s decision to give Gausman the ball is a bold one, especially considering he’s still nursing a left shoulder injury and isn’t at 100 percent. Still, the Cubs believe his postseason experience and matchup against this San Diego lineup give them the best chance to win. And there’s good reason for that.

Let’s break down the pros and cons of each starting pitcher and determine which team has the upper hand in Game 2.

Gausman gets the ball for the Cubs after posting a 4.43 ERA in September, with the team going 1-3 in his four starts. Still, three of those four appearances were quality outings that gave the Cubs a chance to win, as was his lone start against the Padres earlier this season.

While he was still a member of the Toronto Blue Jays, Gausman pitched six innings against San Diego, allowing three earned runs and recording eight strikeouts. Toronto lost that game 5-4, but if Gausman can replicate that outing on Wednesday night, the Cubs will take it. That would keep them in the game and give their offense a chance to take over.

Ultimately, the strongest reason to believe he’s the man for the job is his playoff experience. Gausman has a 3.83 career postseason ERA, but his 2025 run as a member of the Blue Jays’ starting rotation is the real calling card. He posted a 2.93 ERA across five postseason starts, pitching at least 5.2 innings in each and never allowing more than three earned runs.

We saw with Matthew Boyd on Tuesday night how allowing early runs to this Padres team can let the crowd take over a game and suffocate the Cubs on the field. Counsell has plenty of faith that Gausman can deliver a quality start and give Chicago an opportunity to establish momentum.

This Padres lineup does hit right-handed pitching slightly better than left-handed pitching, posting a .722 OPS against righties during the 2026 regular season.

But Gausman brings something unique to the matchup with his splitter. The pitch accounts for 39 percent of his offerings. It’s his out pitch, and he relies on landing it in the strike zone to set up his four-seam fastball and occasional slider.

It’s also a pitch the Padres haven’t seen much of in 2026 or had much success against.

Looking at San Diego hitters’ run values and wOBA against splitters this season, very few have excelled against the pitch.

Notably, Fernando Tatis Jr. doesn’t have a hit against a splitter this year. Utilityman Miguel Andujar, one of San Diego’s hitters who has handled the pitch particularly well, is fresh off the injured list.

Padres starting pitcher Nick Pivetta doesn’t have much playoff experience, but his recent track record speaks for itself. In four September starts, Pivetta posted a 1.45 ERA, and San Diego went a perfect 4-0.

He never pitched more than five innings in a September start after returning from the injured list, but he did what needed to be done, especially given the depth and success of San Diego’s bullpen.

Pivetta didn’t face the Cubs in 2026, but he last saw this team in the 2025 Wild Card Series. He pitched five innings and allowed just two runs in that start, though Chicago won the game 3-1.

That marked just the second season in Pivetta’s career in which he pitched in the postseason. He also made three appearances with the 2021 Red Sox and carries a solid 2.89 career postseason ERA.

This Cubs lineup has been considerably better against left-handed pitching, posting a .795 OPS against lefties during the 2026 regular season compared with a .757 OPS against right-handers. That works in Pivetta’s favor, but his heavy reliance on a four-seam fastball could work against him.

Four-seamers accounted for 52 percent of his offerings in 2026. Cubs hitters Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki, and Matt Shaw all had plenty of success against that pitch this season. Crow-Armstrong posted a .627 slugging percentage and a run value of 20 against four-seamers, while all three hitters had a wOBA above .400.

Nico Hoerner is the one Cubs batter who particularly struggles against the heater. For the most part, though, this lineup should be able to handle Pivetta’s fastball and make him pay if he’s careless with his location.

The matchup data favors Gausman, but Pivetta is the hot hand. Gausman’s shoulder injury is an unquantifiable variable, and the Cubs’ offense didn’t do anything to ease concerns about its slow finish to the regular season when Chicago was nearly no-hit by Michael King on Tuesday night.

If Pivetta can outduel Gausman and turn things over to the Padres’ lights-out bullpen, we could be looking at one of the most unceremonious Chicago Cubs playoff appearances in history. But if Gausman wins the duel and the Cubs can squeak out a victory, they can reclaim momentum and leave the Padres with limited options for a Game 3 starter.

Randy Vásquez started for San Diego on Sunday and was left off the Wild Card Series roster entirely. That means the Padres would likely turn to Robbie Ray or Walker Buehler should the series reach a decisive Game 3.

Either way, the Cubs would like their chances in that matchup.