A surprising contract structure could see the All-Star outfielder return to Chicago, even if it's only for a few seasons.
It was widely expected that All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker would receive a large contract this offseason.
Most insiders firmly believed that Tucker was good enough to become the fifth player in MLB history to receive a $400 million deal. He would join Juan Soto ($765 million), Shohei Ohtani ($700 million), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($500 million), and Mike Trout ($426.5 million).
However, it doesn’t seem like Tucker will get that $400 million contract this winter. Not many teams have shown interest in the four-time All-Star, and there simply isn’t a big market for him right now in free agency.
The only team that has really been tied to Tucker is the Toronto Blue Jays. Tucker visited Toronto’s Spring Training facility in Dunedin, Florida, earlier this month. So, the Blue Jays appear to be the team that is most likely to give the 28-year-old a large contract this offseason.
The problem for Tucker, though, is that Toronto might not be willing to give him that $400 million contract that he probably wants. That could result in the eight-year veteran opting for a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual value.
We have seen players take these higher average annual value contracts instead of longer-term deals in recent years. It gives them a chance to drive up their market for the following offseason, and it has worked out for some players.
Pete Alonso is the biggest example of this after he signed a two-year, $54 million contract with the Mets last offseason. He didn’t get the contract he desired last offseason, bet on himself during the 2025 season, and then received a five-year, $155 million deal this winter.
Therefore, Tucker could choose to go that route this offseason. If the long-term contract that he wants isn’t there, the 28-year-old could sign a one-year or two-year deal in free agency.
That’s where the Cubs could come in.
While the average annual value will likely be high, the Cubs are definitely more willing to sign Tucker to a shorter-term deal than a long-term deal. The odds of re-signing him would still be low, but it would be a non-zero chance.
Paul Hembekides discussed two frameworks that could appeal to Tucker this offseason. The first is signing a one-year, $52 million contract with a player option after 2026, and the second is a two-year deal worth $86 million with a player option after the 2027 campaign.
These are definitely two big contracts in terms of AAV. However, the Cubs are more likely to sign Tucker to a two-year deal worth around $80 million than to sign him for over $300 million this offseason.
Although it’s still a long shot that Tucker does re-sign with the Cubs, a short-term deal around that framework could get Chicago back in the running for the All-Star.