Chicago’s path to October just got smoother. With a commanding wild-card lead and key tiebreakers secured, the North Siders could dodge Philadelphia's most dominant starter.
The Chicago Cubs are in the driver’s seat to make the postseason for the second consecutive year.
Although the Milwaukee Brewers officially clinched the National League Central on Tuesday night, the Cubs are still in full control of making the playoffs as a Wild Card team. The North Siders entered Wednesday with a 99.4% chance of making the postseason on FanGraphs.
Things have definitely tightened up a bit in the NL Wild Card race. The Cubs currently own the top Wild Card spot with an 84-68 record. However, the Philadelphia Phillies (83-68) and San Diego Padres (82-69) are right behind them in this race.
The North Siders began the day with a ½ game lead over the Phillies for that top Wild Card spot and have a 1 ½ game lead over the Padres, who own the third Wild Card spot. They are also four games up on the Diamondbacks, who are on the outside looking in.
The Cubs having the tiebreaker over all three of those teams will obviously help them in this Wild Card race. That puts them up one extra game on those teams in the standings, since those teams would have to completely leapfrog Chicago.
Given that the Phillies have the tiebreaker over the Padres as well, it’s really setting up a potential Cubs versus Phillies Wild Card series.
Even though the Cubs won the season series (6-1), this would be a tough matchup for the North Siders. The Phillies have some superstar hitters in Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Trea Turner, and have the pitching to carry them in close games.
However, the Cubs might get a potential break if they face the Phillies in this Wild Card series.
Philadelphia recently placed star left-handed pitcher Jesus Luzardo on the 15-day injured list on September 15 due to left shoulder inflammation. The Phillies originally pushed back Luzardo’s start over the weekend, but eventually placed him on the IL after his shoulder was not improving.
Now, it’s unclear whether Luzardo will be able to pitch in the postseason. He is eligible to come off the injured list on the last day of the regular season, and the team remains hopeful he will be ready for the playoffs.
If he can’t go in the Wild Card Series, that would be a big break for the Cubs if the two teams match up. Luzardo has been one of baseball's best pitchers over the last few months. He has a 1.65 ERA and a 34.2% strikeout rate across his last 14 starts. In his most recent outing, the Phillies left-hander delivered a nine-inning complete-game shutout with 12 strikeouts against the Braves.
Potentially missing him in this series could improve the Cubs’ chances of moving on.
