The Chicago Cubs pursued starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, but San Diego outbid them. Why the Cubs were not willing to spend that much on Giolito.
It was reported last week that the Chicago Cubs were one of two teams interested in free agent starting pitcher Lucas Giolito.
The Cubs' interest in Giolito made a lot of sense. They just lost their top starting pitcher in Cade Horton for the remainder of the 2026 season, and their pitching depth was already being tested early.
Giolito would immediately come in and provide some solid numbers at the backend of Chicago’s rotation. The veteran was coming off an all-around strong 2025 campaign in which he finished with a 3.41 ERA and 121 strikeouts across 145 innings pitched.
However, Giolito eventually signed a one-year deal with the San Diego Padres earlier this week. The right-hander will earn a base salary of $3 million that can reach to $8 million with incentives. This deal also includes a mutual option for the 2027 season.
San Diego swooped in and grabbed Giolito on the free agent market. The Padres were aggressive in their pursuit of the former All-Star once Nick Pivetta landed on the 15-day injured list due to an elbow injury.
It really felt like the Cubs and Padres were the only two teams in on Giolito at this point in the year. San Diego eventually got him, but the North Siders were supposedly in on him until the very end.
Jon Heyman reported that the Cubs made an offer to Giolito before he signed with the Padres. However, the Cubs "were outbid" by San Diego in the end.
While we don’t know what the Cubs exactly offered Giolito, it’s interesting to hear that the front office was not willing to pay the right-hander at least $8 million (with incentives included).
There are two reasons, though, why the Cubs might not have been willing to pay that.
For one, the team is already over the luxury tax for the 2026 season. Spotrac lists the Cubs' current payroll at $248 million, which is $4 million above the first luxury tax threshold ($244 million). Signing Giolito would have put them extremely close to the second luxury tax threshold ($264 million), and that's before the potential moves the team could make at the trade deadline.
Then, there’s the fact that some regression could be headed Giolito’s way this year. His expected ERA (5.06) was 165 points higher than his actual ERA (3.41) last season, and he ranked in the bottom half of the league in hard-hit rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate in 2025.
So, those things probably all played a factor in the Cubs missing out on Giolito. They likely weren’t willing to give a guaranteed $3 million, plus another $5 million in incentives, to a pitcher who has dealt with some injuries in recent years.