FanGraphs' Steamer projects zero Cubs hitting 25+ homers in 2026, a stark contrast to recent performance and expectations.
At this point in the offseason, it’s always interesting to see what certain platforms might think of the Chicago Cubs heading into the 2026 season. Some platforms like the Cubs more than others.
MLB.com did a way-too-early 2026 power rankings list earlier this month, and the Cubs came in at No. 8 on that list. They were ranked higher than the Milwaukee Brewers (ninth), Houston Astros (10th), and San Diego Padres (11th).
Even CBS Sports had the Cubs listed at six on their way-too-early 2026 power rankings. That sixth-ranked spot was higher than the Boston Red Sox (seventh), New York Mets (ninth), and Seattle Mariners (10th).
But one platform that seems to be down on the Cubs entering the new season is FanGraphs. Steamer went through and projected the hitting numbers of each Cubs player for next year. Unfortunately, those projections weren't ideal.
Although the Cubs had three players hit over 30 home runs last year (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Seiya Suzuki), Steamer doesn’t project any of them to repeat as 30-home run hitters in 2026.
As a matter of fact, they don’t even have one Cubs player hitting at least 25 home runs next year. Steamer projects both Busch and Suzuki to lead the team with only 24 home runs. That feels a little low for two players coming off career years the season before.
Busch is coming off a breakout campaign in which he hit a career-high 34 home runs. With an impressive 17.1% barrel rate and a 41.4% launch angle sweet-spot rate, it’s hard to imagine the up-and-coming first baseman regressing that much in 2026.
Same with Suzuki.
He took significant strides offensively this past season, launching a career-high 32 home runs and driving in 103 RBI across 151 games. More impressively, Suzuki was much better on offspeed pitches. The Japanese slugger batted .333 with seven home runs on those pitch types alone.
Considering Suzuki also had an elite 16.6% barrel rate and a 40.2% launch angle sweet-spot rate, he should continue his dominance at the plate across the 2026 season.
However, FanGraphs only projects Busch to have 24 home runs and 65 RBI, and Suzuki to have 24 home runs and 82 RBI. Even Crow-Armstrong’s projection (20 home runs and 26 stolen bases) feels too low for a player who should only be more consistent at the plate next year.
So, Cubs fans should take these numbers with a grain of salt. Both Busch and Suzuki should hit well over 24 home runs in 2026.