After a dominant start, a flexor strain and plummeting velocity have derailed the right-hander’s season. Tommy Hottovy identifies the mechanical and confidence issues fueling this late-season collapse.
Daniel Palencia entered the season as the Chicago Cubs' closer.
That role really wasn't up for grabs after the hard-throwing right-hander broke out in a big way during the 2025 season. Palencia finished with a 2.91 ERA, 1.139 WHIP, 61 strikeouts, and 22 saves across 52 ⅔ innings pitched.
Palencia continued that dominance in the early portion of this season as well. He had a 2.70 ERA, 19 strikeouts, and three saves across 16 ⅔ innings pitched in his first 19 appearances. The limited number of saves through mid-June obviously weren’t his fault, as the Cubs didn’t play in many close games to begin the year.
However, things have taken a turn for the worse for Palencia since he suffered a right elbow flexor strain in June. He missed over two months with that injury and has not performed well since returning from the injured list a few weeks ago.
The 26-year-old right-hander has allowed seven earned runs across 4 ⅓ innings (14.74 ERA) since coming off the IL on August 21. He has allowed a run in each of his last four relief appearances, and his fastball velocity has been a bit down recently.
Palencia came into Tuesday’s game against the Brewers with a 3-1 lead in the top of the sixth inning. He then proceeded to balk in a run, allow a double to Andrew Vaughn, and then give up a go-ahead two-run shot to Christian Yelich.
On Wednesday, Palencia entered the game in the top of the seventh inning with the Cubs trailing 6-5. The right-hander allowed a leadoff double to Yelich, and Cooper Pratt eventually brought him in on an RBI single two batters later. His average fastball velocity was also down 1.4 mph.
It has really been a tough go for Palencia since injuring his flexor strain in mid-June. He isn’t throwing as hard, the results aren’t there anymore, and the Cubs haven’t been able to rely on him in high-leverage spots. His 5.14 ERA on the season explains just that.
There is a clear explanation, though, for why Palencia might be struggling. Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy went on 104.3 The Score on Thursday afternoon and explained that Palencia wasn’t feeling great mechanically before his activation off the IL.
“I think it's a little bit more of a confidence thing. He wasn't feeling great mechanically, I think, as he was getting back during his rehab and trying to kind of get things in sync. And some of that does translate into not having the confidence of driving the ball where you want it, or you expect it to be in the past.”
It is interesting that the Cubs went ahead and activated Palencia despite some mechanical concerns. What’s even worse is that manager Craig Counsell has immediately put him into high-leverage spots right away. For someone who doesn’t have much confidence on the mound right now, it’s best to leave Palencia in low-leverage spots for the time being.
