ZiPS forecasts another impressive season for Pete Crow-Armstrong, predicting strong offense and defense despite plate discipline concerns.
Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is coming off a breakout season in 2025. He made his first All-Star appearance, won his first Gold Glove, and finished ninth in National League MVP voting.
Crow-Armstrong really emerged as one of the Cubs best players last year. He became just the second player in Chicago’s history to have a 30-homer, 30-stolen-base season and led the team with an impressive 6 WAR.
However, it was a tale of two seasons for Crow-Armstrong in 2025.
After slashing .271/.309/.560 with 25 home runs, 70 RBI, and 27 stolen bases in the first half, Crow-Armstrong regressed significantly in the second half. He only hit .209 with six home runs and eight stolen bases over his final 65 games.
So, the biggest question entering the season is what version of Crow-Armstrong will show up this year? Will it be the first-half version? Will it be the second-half version? Could it be somewhere in between?
When looking at Crow-Armstrong’s metrics from last year, the top thing that stands out is his lack of plate discipline. His chase rate (41.7%), whiff rate (28.9%), strikeout rate (24%), and walk rate (4.5%) all ranked in the bottom half of the league. He also had the second-highest first-swing rate (52.8%) on the team.
Crow-Armstrong simply needs to be more patient at the plate. Only 46.5% of the pitches he saw last year were in the strike zone, and his 82% zone contact rate has to improve.
Despite those concerns, ZiPS projections believe Crow-Armstrong will have another strong all-around season for the Cubs. They project him to lead the team with a 4.9 WAR, while continuing to be impactful both at the plate and in the field.
“Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will play terrific defense, with PCA adding a bunch of homers at the cost of a rather low on-base percentage,” Dan Szymborski wrote.
ZiPS doesn’t quite project Crow-Armstrong to hit as many home runs (31) as he did a season ago, but they still see him hitting 25 long balls in 2026. Those 25 projected home runs are the third-most by a Cubs player in ZiPS projections, only behind Michael Busch (28) and Seiya Suzuki (26).
Overall, ZIPS has Crow-Armstrong slashing .255/.304/.461 with 25 home runs, 28 doubles, six triples, 91 RBI, and 32 stolen bases across 614 plate appearances. They anticipate the Cubs outfielder to have a slightly higher batting average and on-base percentage than last year, but a lower slugging percentage.
If Crow-Armstrong could maintain a .250 batting average while hitting 25+ home runs and stealing over 30 bases, that would be a nice offensive season for the up-and-coming star.