Despite pessimistic projections, the Cubs' revamped rotation, fueled by Edward Cabrera's arrival, promises more than the numbers suggest.
The Chicago Cubs entered the offseason needing to add another starting pitcher to their rotation. After simply running out of arms in last year’s postseason, the Cubs couldn’t run into the same problem again.
So, the team made a blockbuster deal to acquire Edward Cabrera from the Miami Marlins. Cabrera is an up-and-coming pitcher who is coming off the best season of his career in 2025.
His arrival gives the North Siders a strong rotation heading into the 2026 season. He joins Matthew Boyd, Cade Horton, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga, and Justin Steele (once he’s healthy) to form a solid rotation for the Cubs.
However, this rotation isn’t highly regarded by multiple projection outlets.
ZiPS recently came out with its annual projections, and the projections don’t favor the Cubs’ rotation for the 2026 season. Boyd is projected to lead the group with a 2.4 WAR, while Cabrera (1.9) and Horton (1.7) are estimated to finish with under a 2.0 WAR.
Both Cabrera’s and Horton’s projected WAR on ZiPS feels extremely low for two ascending pitchers. Cabera finished with a 2.8 WAR last season, and he now gets to work with the Cubs’ pitching lab duo of Tyler Zombro and Tommy Hottovy. It’s hard to imagine his WAR declining that much from a year ago.
As for Horton, he finished with a 2.0 WAR in his rookie season despite only throwing 118 innings. With the right-hander now entering his second year in the Majors, the sky is the limit for him. A projected 1.7 WAR would suggest that he’ll have an average year.
“ZiPS sees the Cubs as having a very deep rotation that’s also very deep in unexcitement,” Dan Szymborski. “There’s certainly some upside here, especially in Edward Cabrera, but ZiPS largely views the team as having a whole lot of broadly average starting pitching options.”
Then, there’s FanGraphs projections. FanGraphs gives Chicago’s rotation a combined 11.2 WAR for the 2026 season (12th-lowest among all teams). That 11.2 projected WAR ranks 19th overall, behind teams like the Baltimore Orioles (11.4), Milwaukee Brewers (11.7), and Miami Marlins (12.7).
Like ZiPS, FanGraphs also has some questionable projections for some of the Cubs pitchers. FanGraphs projects Horton to finish with a 1.2 WAR behind a whopping 4.34 ERA.
From these two projections from ZiPS and FanGraphs, it’s clear that the Cubs' rotation isn't respected. Both of these projections have Chicago finishing in the bottom half of the league in rotation WAR this season.
But this Cubs rotation deserves a little bit more praise entering the 2026 campaign. While most will remember the poor performances of Boyd and Imanaga toward the end of last season, this rotation is better than the projections say.
Boyd is a savvy veteran who'll maintain a low ERA throughout the year. Imanaga could rebound despite a career-worst year in 2025. People forget that he was good in the first half of last season (2.40 ERA) before struggling in the second half.
Steele -- who has a career 3.30 ERA -- will rejoin this rotation following an elbow injury. Horton is entering his first full season in the Majors after finishing second in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Taillon has posted a sub-3.70 ERA in back-to-back seasons, and Cabrera has as much upside as any pitcher in baseball.
Those six pitchers make the Cubs' rotation one of the most underrated units heading into the 2026 season. This group is much better than those projections suggest.