The Cubs upgraded their starting rotation without sacrificing top prospects, but Kevin Gausman’s recent struggles raise questions about what they can expect.
The Chicago Cubs front office got active on Sunday night, agreeing to a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays to acquire right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman.
Gausman is a two-time All-Star with more than 2,000 career innings pitched and 2,000 strikeouts. In 2026, he's 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA. He also brings some postseason experience to the table, having posted a 3.83 ERA over 56.1 innings in his playoff career. That includes two quality starts for the Blue Jays in the 2025 World Series.
It may not be the marquee addition that Tarik Skubal would have been, but there's definitely some merit to adding Gausman to the current Cubs rotation.
Jed Hoyer and Chicago are likely to stay busy on Monday in the hours leading up to the deadline. But in the meantime, let's dive into the pros and cons of the Cubs trading for Kevin Gausman.
The Pros
The most obvious positive is the return package being sent to the Blue Jays. All it took to acquire Kevin Gausman was for the Cubs to part with infield prospect Ty Southisene, the organization's No. 13 prospect, and outfield prospect Brett Bateman, its No. 21 prospect.
Neither player ranked among Chicago's top 10 prospects prior to the deal. And while both have produced respectable numbers in the minor leagues, they also each have 20-grade power, which gives them rather limited offensive ceilings.
Hoyer managed to upgrade Chicago's starting rotation with a proven arm who has All-Star upside, and he didn't have to tap into the organization's top prospects to do it. That should leave the door open for more trades if the right deal comes along.
As for Gausman, his durability is a major plus. The Cubs have been haunted by pitching injuries over the last few years, but Gausman is about as reliable as it gets. He made at least 31 starts every year from 2021 through 2025. He's thrown more than 180 innings in four of the last five seasons. In 2026, he's made an MLB-high 23 starts and has completed at least six innings 13 times.
Even if he continues pitching close to the 4.38 ERA he's posted so far in 2026 and doesn't rediscover his All-Star form, the Cubs are adding depth and durability to a starting rotation that has otherwise been lacking in both areas. That alone is worth the prospects they gave up.
Gausman is also a low-walk pitcher. He forces opponents to put the ball in play, and he should receive a natural boost from having the Cubs defense behind him. There's plenty of reason to believe a change of scenery will improve his production, especially now that he's joining a winning environment.
The Cons
There are, however, some reasons to be concerned about Gausman and what his performance might look like for the remainder of 2026. Over his last 11 starts dating back to the beginning of June, Gausman has a 5.86 ERA and has allowed at least four earned runs six different times.
Location has been an issue for Gausman. He's throwing a first-pitch strike 62.2% of the time, a decrease of 6.6 percentage points from his 2025 figure. The batting average against him has increased by .043, while the slugging percentage against him has climbed by .047.
Perhaps what I find most concerning is the data surrounding his splitter. The splitter has been Gausman's top out pitch for the majority of his career. And while the run value of his fastball ranks in the 96th percentile among all pitchers in 2026, his offspeed stuff has taken a pretty significant hit in spin rate and hasn't been nearly as effective as a result.
Opponents are batting .286 with a .743 slugging percentage against Gausman's slider this season. That's an increase of .153 points in the slugging department from where it was in 2025. The wOBA against his split-finger was .222 in 2025 and has increased to .257 in 2026 as its spin rate has dropped by 120 RPM.
Opposing hitters are also getting the ball in the air against Gausman, with his pull air percentage sitting at 17.6%, the second-highest mark of his career. That may not be a recipe for success at Wrigley Field on days when the wind is blowing out.
We saw that on June 19, when Gausman allowed seven earned runs over just two innings at Wrigley Field against his new team.
These are relatively small drawbacks, but they're reasons why Gausman may not be the All-Star version of himself that Cubs fans will want him to be after the trade. But again, given the low asking price and the prospects the Cubs parted with, it's a house-money acquisition that only makes the team better.
The question is whether Gausman can still be a frontline starter or if he's nothing more than an innings eater. We'll have that answer only once he starts taking the mound for the Cubs.
Gausman last pitched on Saturday, August 1, which puts him in line to make his Cubs debut on August 6. That's a Thursday afternoon game against, of all teams, the Toronto Blue Jays.
