As offensive production plummets, Craig Counsell must demote a struggling Ian Happ and elevate the red-hot Michael Busch to spark a turnaround in the North Siders' stagnant lineup.
The Chicago Cubs' offense is reeling right now.
After averaging 5.9 runs per game as part of their 10-game winning streak from April 28 to May 8, the Cubs have come back down to earth offensively. They are averaging only 3.2 runs per game over their last nine contests.
This recent nine-game span has been a tough offensive stretch for the North Siders. They have scored three runs or fewer in seven of these nine contests and have lost seven times since May 9. Chicago has also lost three straight series.
Given the offense’s poor numbers recently, it’s time to make a change. Manager Craig Counsell has to make some adjustments to the lineup right now.
That includes moving Ian Happ down in the order.
Happ has hit either in the No. 3 hole or in the No. 4 spot the entire season. He has hit third 16 times and fourth 30 times. The switch-hitting outfielder has really settled into that cleanup spot, as he has hit there in 30 of the team’s last 36 games.
However, Happ needs to move out of the cleanup spot. He’s batting just .222 with 10 home runs, six doubles, 20 RBI, and two stolen bases across 46 games this year and is starting to become a little bit of a liability in the four hole.
While the power numbers have been there, the situational hitting has not. Happ is batting only .151 (8-for-53) with two home runs, 11 RBI, and 13 strikeouts with runners in scoring positions. He’s also slugging only .333 in high-leverage spots at the plate.
Those struggles in key spots are why the Cubs should move Happ in the lineup for the time being. He’s not getting the job done when needed to, and his strikeouts are a massive problem. His 31.7% strikeout rate currently ranks in the 6th percentile among all qualified hitters.
Happ is just not the right hitter in that cleanup spot. As the No. 4 hitter, he should be coming through in big spots and driving in runs. But he only has 20 RBI across 208 plate appearances this season.
He might even be better suited for the No. 2 spot in this Chicago lineup. His walk rate (16.8%) ranks in the 96th percentile, his xwOBA (.356) ranks in the 77th percentile, and Happ currently has an above-average .361 on-base percentage.
That No. 4 spot, though, should belong to Michael Busch. Busch has heated up at the plate since his early-season struggles. He's batting .339 with two home runs and 16 RBI in 17 games this month and always seems to come through in the clutch.
The lefty slugger is batting .306 (15-for-49) with one home run and 21 RBI with runners in scoring position this year. He has a .991 OPS in high-leverage spots and has nine walks in these situations.
That’s the type of hitter that should be in the cleanup spot moving forward. Switching Happ and Busch in the order could get this Cubs offense back on track.
