Kilian, once a Cubs prospect, is dominating in San Francisco's bullpen. Did Chicago let him go before his true potential surfaced?
Back in 2021, the Chicago Cubs made major changes to their roster.
President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer decided it was time to trade away the team’s core. The Cubs then traded away Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant at the 2021 MLB Trade Deadline.
Bryant was the biggest name of the bunch to get traded. He was a former MVP, was in the midst of a solid all-around season, and was still in the prime of his career at just 29 years old.
The Cubs went on to acquire two high upside prospects in Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian for Bryant. Canario was the Giants’ No. 9 overall prospect, while Kilian came in at No. 30 overall.
However, neither player really worked out.
Canario appeared in only 21 combined games for the Cubs across the 2023 and 2024 seasons before the team decided to designate him for assignment before the 2025 campaign. The outfielder had 12 hits in 45 career plate appearances with Chicago.
The Cubs also designated Kilian for assignment during the 2025 season. He dealt with injuries in his short time in the organization and really struggled in his limited Major League innings. The right-hander had a whopping 9.22 ERA in 27 ⅓ innings pitched from 2022 to 2024.
But did the front office give up on Kilian too soon?
With injuries fully in the past, the 28-year-old is finally showing his potential in the big leagues. He signed a Minor League deal with the Giants in January and has been the biggest surprise in San Francisco’s bullpen to begin the year.
Kilian has an impressive 0.64 ERA and 16 strikeouts across 13 relief appearances. He has allowed just one run across 14 innings pitched and hasn’t gotten into much trouble on the mound to start the year.
His early-season metrics are extremely encouraging as well. Kilian ranks in the top 20% of the league in expected batting average against (.172), whiff rate (30.7%), strikeout rate (29.6%), and barrel rate (3.3%).
With a plus fastball that is carrying him in the early going, Kilian is showing signs of a breakout campaign. His Fastball Run Value (5) places him in the 92nd percentile, and he’s finally displaying swing-and-miss stuff on his offspeed pitches.
The Cubs might have made a mistake by releasing Kilian last season. Although he didn’t necessarily post strong numbers in his time with Chicago, the potential was always there. His move to the bullpen seems to be working out quite well.