The Cubs finally landed a starting pitcher in Edward Cabrera, but the cost doesn't match the caliber of arm they got in return.
The Chicago Cubs had ample opportunity this winter to acquire the frontline, right-handed starting pitcher they’ve been chasing for years.
They were involved with Dylan Cease before he inked a seven-year, $210 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.
There was also Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai, a pitcher the Cubs were widely believed to be the favorite to land. Chicago reportedly thought it had a deal in place, but an unwillingness to include annual opt-outs ultimately pushed Imai to accept an offer from the Houston Astros instead.
By the time the calendar flipped to the new year, the Cubs were empty-handed. Even after Shota Imanaga accepted the qualifying offer to return for 2026, it was clear that Jed Hoyer and the front office were going to add a starting pitcher one way or another — for better or worse.
If not through free agency, then via the trade market.
On Wednesday, the Cubs finally made their marquee move, agreeing to a trade with the Miami Marlins to acquire right-handed pitcher Edward Cabrera.
The cost was significant. Heading to Miami is outfield prospect Owen Caissie — the No. 1 prospect in the Cubs’ organization and the No. 49 prospect in all of baseball, according to MLB Pipeline — along with infielder Cristian Hernandez (Cubs No. 11) and infielder Edgar De Leon.
And while I hate to rain on anyone’s parade, I’m really not a fan of this deal for Chicago.
Caissie is a fascinating prospect. He possesses an explosive left-handed swing that projects to legitimate 30-home-run power at the big-league level. While the strikeout rate runs a bit high, he takes his walks, makes plenty of contact, and consistently does damage. In Triple-A during the 2025 season, Caissie hit .286 with 28 doubles and 22 home runs in just 99 games.
He’s also more athletic than his frame suggests — quick enough to hold his own in the outfield as an average defender and quality baserunner. Most importantly, he’s big-league ready right now, with the ability to contribute as soon as 2026.
On paper, the Cubs may feel their outfield is settled: Ian Happ in left, Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, and Seiya Suzuki handling the lion’s share of innings in right field, barring an unexpected free-agent addition.
But that’s a narrow view.
Happ is entering the final year of his contract and is set to hit free agency after the 2026 season. The same goes for Suzuki. Two corner outfield spots are very much in flux, and this marks the second straight offseason in which the Cubs have traded away an MLB-ready corner outfield prospect — following last year’s Cam Smith deal.
Still, this isn’t only about Caissie.
Prospects are prospects. Getting overly attached to them is a dangerous game. The real issue is value — what you’re getting back in return for that level of prospect capital.
The Cubs have been hunting a frontline right-handed starter all offseason. But that’s the problem: Edward Cabrera isn’t one.
Across six MLB seasons and 431 career innings, Cabrera owns a 4.07 ERA. That’s respectable, but it’s not the profile of an arm you move a top-50 prospect to acquire. His career-high workload is just 137.2 innings, set in 2025. This is not a workhorse. It’s not an All-Star. It’s certainly not a future Cy Young contender.
Cabrera is a talented but flawed complementary starter with significant durability concerns.
The underlying metrics back that up. In 2025, his average exit velocity allowed was 90.3 mph, placing him in the 22nd percentile. His hard-hit rate sat at 46.4%, landing in the 8th percentile. Translation: he gets hit hard — a lot.
Even with a fastball that touches the upper-90s, Cabrera ranked in just the 4th percentile in fastball run value last season. It’s largely an ineffective pitch used to set up an off-speed-heavy arsenal.
There are positives. The changeup is elite. He generates ground balls. This is still a useful major-league arm.
But when you’re trading the No. 1 prospect in your organization, you hope the pitcher coming back is either a proven top-of-the-rotation piece or a high-upside arm trending toward ace status — at minimum, a reliable No. 2 starter on a playoff team.
Yes, Cabrera is controllable at age 27, with three years remaining before free agency. But how valuable are those years if he’s spending a significant portion of them on the injured list?
Since 2022, Cabrera has landed on the IL eight times, dealing with recurring elbow, shoulder, and blister issues. Even at his healthiest, his peak season topped out at 2.0 fWAR — simply not enough upside to justify moving a prospect who could help address a current need as soon as this season.
This is what happens when big-market teams don’t operate like big-market teams. Instead of paying in dollars, they pay in prospect capital — and often overpay.
In my opinion, this was a mistake.
The Marlins got a steal.