The big question around Major League Baseball this offseason surrounds Kyle Tucker and his next potential contract. With Tucker labeled as the No. 1 free agent this winter, everyone wants to know what he will sign for. 

Many MLB insiders predict his next contract to be a big one. He is just 28 years old, has four All-Star appearances to his name already, and has finished with a WAR above 4.5 in five consecutive seasons. 

Here are what some MLB outlets have predicted Tucker’s next contract to be: 

• Matt Synder, CBS Sports (10 years, $425 million)
• Spotrac (10 years, $402 million)
• MLB Trade Rumors (11 years, $400 million)
• Kiley McDaniel, ESPN (11 years, $418 million)
• Tim Kelly, Bleacher Report (10 years, $360 million)
• Jon Heyman, New York Post (11 years, $350 million)

As you can see, Tucker isn’t going to be cheap to sign in free agency. He is easily the No. 1 free agent this offseason, and his bat can really elevate an offense. 

But is Tucker actually worth over $350 million? Let’s dive in and figure out whether he’s worthy of the massive contract he is expected to get in the coming weeks. 

Why He’s Worthy Of $350+ Million

When Tucker is at the top of his game, he is easily one of the best hitters in baseball. Teams have seen that in each of the 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons. In those three years combined, the slugging outfielder hit 89 home runs, drove in 311 runs, and stole 69 bases. 

What makes Tucker so good is his selectiveness at the plate. That’s the type of hitter teams love at the top of their lineup. He doesn’t strike out a lot, has a fantastic eye at the plate, and takes his walks when he needs to. 

Tucker has finished in the 85th percentile or better in strikeout rate, walk rate, and chase rate in three consecutive seasons. In 2025, his 14.6% walk rate ranked in the top 4% of all hitters in baseball. 

That plate discipline only tells half the story of Tucker’s game because he also has above-average power, can steal 30-plus bases, and has a solid glove out in right field. Those things have helped him accumulate a 25.5 WAR since the start of the 2021 season. 

Why He’s Not Worthy Of $350+ Million

Staying healthy has been a major problem for Tucker in recent seasons. He only played in 78 games in his final season with the Houston Astros in 2024 and then missed another 26 games with the Cubs this past year. 

Additionally, Tucker went through a major slump in the second half of 2025. He hit just .231 with five home runs, 17 RBI, and three stolen bases across 41 games after the All-Star break, which included spending three weeks on the injured list due to a calf strain. 

Then, in the postseason, Tucker didn’t come through in the big moments. With the season on the line in Game 5 of the National League Division Series, the slugger had a chance to even the game with runners on first and second with nobody out. But he whiffed on a fastball right down the middle on a 3-1 count and eventually struck out one pitch later. 

It’s those moments that could make teams question whether Tucker is actually a $350+ million player. Players of his caliber have to come up big in certain moments, and his second-half struggles are somewhat eye-opening.   

The Verdict

Although Tucker had his fair share of struggles in the second half, he is absolutely deserving of getting a contract over $350 million. His second-half struggles could be attributed to a finger injury that affected his overall numbers for the year.

At the end of the day, though, Tucker’s bat makes any lineup that much more dangerous. We saw that in the first half, as the Cubs had one of the best offenses across the first few months. His presence makes any offense better. 

While he may not be worth upward of $400 million, a contract somewhere between $350 and $380 million feels like the right price for the four-time All-Star.