With several obvious prospects set to join the 40-man, Connor Noland’s forces the Cubs front office to weigh floor vs. upside.
By Tuesday afternoon at 4 p.m. ET, any players eligible for the Rule 5 Draft must be added to their clubs’ 40-man rosters if they’re going to be protected.
Anyone left unprotected will be exposed in the Rule 5 Draft — which takes place during the Winter Meetings in December — and could end up switching organizations. And if a team miscalculates, the consequences can be severe.
A player becomes Rule 5 eligible if he’s not on his team’s 40-man roster and he was signed at age 18 or younger and has been in the organization for five seasons, or he was signed at age 19 or older and has been in the organization for four seasons.
The Chicago Cubs have plenty of space on their current 40-man roster, but they also have plenty of prospects who need protection.
Among them are top-10 prospects Pedro Ramirez, James Triantos, and Brandon Birdsell — all no-brainer additions. Same goes for No. 11 prospect Cristian Hernandez. But beyond that, Chicago will have some uncomfortable decisions to make over the next 24 hours.
None more interesting than what to do with right-hander Connor Noland, the Cubs’ No. 22 prospect and the player MLB.com recently called the organization’s “toughest Rule 5 decision.”
Noland, a ninth-round pick in 2022, is now 26 years old with nearly 200 innings of Triple-A experience in Iowa. He’s about as big-league ready as Rule 5 candidates come. His strikeout numbers are modest (7.8 K/9), which makes sense given his fastball tops out around 92 mph.
MLB.com notes that “he employs a kitchen-sink approach and mixes six pitches, with only his low-80s slider grading as better than average.”
So why protect him if the ceiling is limited and the stuff isn’t overwhelming?
Two reasons.
First, his command. Noland can locate five of six pitches, limits loud contact, and doesn’t beat himself with walks. His walk rates don't jump off the page, but overall control raises his floor as a pitcher and points to him being an eventual MLB contributor.
The second reason is his age and readiness. Teams don’t select players in the Rule 5 Draft unless they believe that player can survive on a 26-man roster right now. A Rule 5 pick must stay in the majors all season or be offered back to their original club.
Someone like Drew Gray — Chicago’s No. 27 prospect — is also eligible, but he’s just 22, hasn’t pitched above High-A, and carries a projected MLB ETA of 2027. Gray only pitched 9.1 innings in 2025. That’s not the type of player a team is going to stash on a big-league roster for six months. Therefore, the Cubs don’t need to burn a 40-man spot protecting him.
Noland, on the other hand, has done all he can do in the minors. Now it’s simply about whether a club out there is willing to give him real MLB runway.
At minimum, he provides the Cubs with rotation depth — and given all the roster flexibility they currently have, I lean toward advocating for his protection.
That said… if another team does grab him in December, I’m not convinced he’s someone the Cubs would lose sleep over.