Cubs Have Major Concerns About Daniel Palencia's Return

Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell spoke to the media this week about two injured and rehabbing Cubs pitchers, starter Edward Cabrera and closer Daniel Palencia.

And while Cabrera's pitching speaks for itself, with his most recent rehab start in Double-A Knoxville, Palencia's has been just as revealing for all the wrong reasons. It doesn't seem like the Cubs have a ton of faith in him being the same guy once he returns, nor should they.

Palencia landed on the IL back in June with right elbow inflammation. That's a scary injury on its own, and it's made even more concerning by his recent performances while rehabbing.

On Tuesday in Knoxville, Palencia pitched just 0.2 innings while allowing four earned runs, including a hit by pitch and three walks. All of those runners came around to score. Across three outings, Palencia's ERA on his rehab assignment is 19.29. He's faced 15 batters and thrown a total of 55 pitches, but he's thrown more balls (28) than strikes (27).

The Cubs aren't beating around the bush when it comes to Palencia, either. They know that what they've seen from him has been concerning, to say the least.

“We just got to keep getting Danny out there. That's the most important thing,” said Cubs manager Craig Counsell when speaking to the media this week. “He has not been sharp the last couple times out.”

Palencia's success has almost always been directly linked to his control. In 2024, when he posted a 6.14 ERA over 10 MLB appearances, it's largely in part due to his 17.4% walk rate. It was one of the worst marks in baseball. When Palencia dropped that number to 7.4%, an above-average mark, especially for a reliever with explosive velocity and stuff, he became far more effective, posting a 2.91 ERA with 22 saves on the season.

Another respectable walk rate of 8.5% in 2026 has allowed Palencia to be equally as effective, albeit in a limited sample size this season. But his 2.70 ERA through 19 appearances with 10.3 K/9 is right in line with the pitcher he was in 2025. And without him, the Cubs don't have an established closer.

The current team leader in saves is Jacob Webb with eight, and he's recorded five of those since the start of July. Prior to 2026, Webb had never recorded more than two saves in a single season. Trent Thornton and Caleb Thielbar are tied with Palencia for second with three saves on the year.

Needless to say, it's incredibly rare for a team to win a World Series without an established closer. You'd be hard-pressed to find many teams that have won it all without at least one pitcher having 20 or more saves in the last 50 years. There are exceptions, the 2024 Dodgers being one of them, but the lack of high-leverage relief and consistent roles could definitely be a concern for the Cubs as they march toward October. Having Palencia back in the fold would ease those concerns, but an elbow injury preceding control issues in the minor leagues makes it hard to know what he'll bring to the table if he does eventually return.

I suppose there are two sides to every coin. When you look at Edward Cabrera and his most recent rehab dominance, you see a starting pitcher who will help lengthen Chicago's rotation, giving starters days of rest and preserving their arms for the upcoming playoff run. But when you look at Palencia, you see a reliever who doesn't look like his old self and doesn't seem to have the control that he so heavily relies on.