Cubs' slugger Michael Busch is struggling to replicate last year's success, showing diminished bat speed and weak contact. Can he regain his hitting prowess?
Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch is still trying to find some consistency at the plate.
Busch has been one of the biggest disappointments for the Cubs in the early going. He is slashing just .169/.261/.195 with two doubles and three RBI in his first 21 games and is still without a homer across 88 plate appearances.
It's a little surprising to see Busch struggle early on, especially since he started the 2025 season so well. Last year, he hit .316 with five home runs, six doubles, a triple, and 15 RBI in his first 84 plate appearances.
This season, though, Busch has looked like a completely different hitter.
He isn’t contributing much at the plate, and his early-season struggles have been felt. Although the Cubs are averaging 7.3 runs per game since April 12, Busch only has one RBI over this eight-game span.
Now, it’s still way too early to fully panic on Busch. We are only 13% of the way done with the season, and there’s a lot of baseball left. The Cubs first baseman could easily go on a heater and return to his 2025 self.
Busch showed last year that he has the tools to be an elite hitter in the big leagues. He hit .261 with 34 home runs, 25 doubles, and 90 RBI en route to a breakout campaign. The 28-year-old didn’t just magically post those numbers. The talent is there.
However, there is some reason to be concerned with Busch’s poor numbers to start the season.
For starters, his bat speed is down significantly from last year. After having a 69.6 mph bat speed in 2025, his bat speed sits at just 67.4 mph to begin the new season. That’s a noticeable 2.2 mph difference.
Additionally, Busch is not hitting the ball well. His average exit velocity (83.4 mph), barrel rate (3.3%), hard-hit rate (28.3%), and launch angle sweet-spot rate (23.3%) all rank in the bottom 20% of the league. Those are all major red flags.
What helped Busch's numbers so much last year was how hard he was hitting the ball. Both his average exit velocity (92.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (47.3%) ranked in the top half of the league.
That just hasn’t been the case this year.
If Busch wants to return to his 2025 self, he has to get back to what made him such a great hitter last season. That starts with pulling the ball in the air more. Busch had an elite 22.2% pull AIR rate, which helped him hit 23 homers to the right side of the field.
In the early portion of this season, Busch’s pull AIR rate is just 15%. He is hitting more groundballs to the opposite side of the field (11.7%), and his weak contact rate (8.3%) is up because of it.
Busch definitely has the talent to turn things around at the plate. Hopefully, as the weather gets warmer, his overall numbers will improve.