Projection Models Don't Love Cubs Pitcher Cade Horton In Year 2

Chicago Cubs pitcher Cade Horton took the league by storm in his first Major League season. The more experience he got, the better he was on the mound.  

Horton ended his rookie season with a 2.67 ERA, a 1.085 WHIP, and 97 strikeouts across 118 innings pitched. He finished second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting and was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of the season. 

The right-hander had a 1.03 ERA and 54 strikeouts in 12 starts after the All-Star break. He gave up one run or fewer in 11 of those 12 starts and had five different outings of at least five innings pitched and zero runs allowed. 

Horton was simply untouchable down the stretch. He looked poised on the mound, and hitters really struggled against his changeup. Opposing batters had a .115 batting average with a 47.8% whiff rate on that changeup last year. 

Entering his second Major League season, the Cubs are ready for Horton to dominate on the mound again.  

“He dominated the league last year,” manager Craig Counsell told reporters in Arizona. “Now it’s do it again and do it over a full season, workload increased.” 

Now, no one expects Horton to post the numbers he did in the second half. That was an unreal run in the final 2 ½ months, and he’ll likely face some challenges throughout the season as hitters adjust to him in Year 2. 

However, several projection models don’t seem to be in on Horton this season. Many of those projections indicate that Horton will actually regress significantly in 2026. 

Steamer projects Horton to finish with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.2 WAR. THE BAT projects the right-hander to finish with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.9 WAR, and ZiPS projects him to finish with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.7 WAR. 

For a pitcher who was arguably the most dominant starter in the second half, those are quite poor projections for him. Following that incredible rookie campaign, it’s really hard to imagine Horton finishing the year with anything above a 4.00 ERA. 

In just 118 innings pitched last year, he showed his potential on the mound. His Pitching Run Value ranked in the 89th percentile, and his Fastball Run Value, Breaking Run Value, and Offspeed Run Value all ranked in the upper half of the league. 

In the second half, there was simply no hitter able to touch him. His 1.03 ERA, .154 opponent’s batting average, .447 opponent’s OPS, and 0.78 WHIP ranked first among all qualified starters post All-Star break. 

Horton simply dominated in his first taste of the big leagues. He deserves more love from these projection models entering his second Major League season.