A position-by-position look suggests the gap between Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers is narrower than perception.
The rich are getting richer in Major League Baseball. And no matter how much progress a club makes during the offseason, every team is still chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The back-to-back defending champions operate with financial flexibility that the rest of the league simply cannot match. Only a handful of organizations can reasonably compete with the Dodgers’ spending pace — and fortunately, the Chicago Cubs are among them — but roughly 80 percent of the league is falling further behind with every upgrade Los Angeles makes.
Flexing that financial muscle once again, the Dodgers agreed Thursday night to a contract with former Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker. It is a stunning four-year, $240 million deal, paying Tucker $60 million per season with deferrals and opt-outs mixed in.
Predictably, the reaction across the baseball world was outrage. The prevailing narrative is familiar: once again, no one will be able to hang with the Dodgers.
But when you actually compare the Dodgers’ roster to the Cubs’ — position by position — how wide is the gap, really?
Starting Pitching
Building a deep, flexible rotation was a clear priority for Jed Hoyer and the Cubs this offseason. Shota Imanaga returned on a qualifying offer, and Chicago added upside by trading top prospect Owen Caissie for right-hander Edward Cabrera.
As a result, the Cubs enter 2026 with one of the deepest starting rotations in baseball. While they may lack multiple established aces, the collective upside is significant — enough to reasonably project the Cubs as a team that can compete in the National League on the strength of its pitching.
According to FanGraphs’ projected fWAR for the 2026 season, the Cubs’ top six starters combine for an expected 10.1 fWAR. That trails the Dodgers’ projected 16.1, though those numbers likely represent an optimistic view of Los Angeles.
Dodgers starters are frequently impacted by injuries and underperformance. In actual 2025 production, the difference in fWAR between the two rotations was much narrower: 12.5 for Los Angeles and 9.6 for Chicago. The edge still favored the Dodgers — but not by nearly the margin projections suggest.
That's also assuming Cabrera and Horton do no have breakout seasons to bring value beyond their career norms.
The Lineup
Chicago’s projected starting lineup carries a combined 25.4 fWAR for 2026. That trails the Dodgers’ 29.9 following the addition of Tucker.
Once again, however, real-world performance has a way of shrinking that gap. Mookie Betts endured a down year by his standards. Max Muncy missed some time again. And it is fair to wonder whether Betts’ days as a perennial elite producer are nearing their end.
The postseason provides a revealing snapshot. Shohei Ohtani posted a dominant 1.182 OPS during the playoffs. Every other Dodgers hitter combined for a .682 OPS. Ohtani carried more of the load than the narrative often acknowledges.
When comparing actual production from projected 2026 rosters, the Cubs finished with roughly 30 fWAR in 2025, compared to 32.2 for the Dodgers. That difference is marginal.
The Bullpen
This is where the Cubs hold a clear advantage.
Based on 2025 production, Chicago’s bullpen outperformed Los Angeles by a wide margin. Cubs relievers combined for 7.5 fWAR last season, while the Dodgers’ bullpen produced just 4.6.
Los Angeles holds a slight edge in 2026 projections, largely because Cubs relievers such as Jacob Webb and Daniel Palencia are being significantly undervalued despite recent performance. Chicago made a deliberate effort to improve its bullpen this winter, and the result is a deeper, more balanced relief corps supported by legitimate minor-league depth.
The Overall Picture
I don’t believe the Cubs are nearly as far from the Dodgers as social-media narratives would have you believe.
Yes — I do think the system is broken, and I believe Major League Baseball is on a collision course with a labor showdown following the 2026 season. But I also believe there are four or five teams that could legitimately challenge the Dodgers in a seven-game series — teams that can make a credible case they are just as strong, if not stronger, on paper.
The Cubs are one of those teams.
That is ultimately what fans should ask of ownership and the front office: a willingness to spend, a commitment to compete, and a roster built with intention. Chicago appears to be doing that — potentially with a payroll barely half the size of Los Angeles’.
And that, more than anything, is the difference between a well-run organization that scouts, evaluates, and develops effectively, and one that simply pays its way out of mistakes and buys its margin for error.