Sep 25, 2026 3:09 PM
The Arizona Diamondbacks hold a critical tiebreaker, but their postseason hopes hinge on a Philadelphia Phillies collapse.
Through Thursday, Sept. 25, the Arizona Diamondbacks are officially two games back of the Philadelphia Phillies.
With only three games remaining, the final Wild Card spot up for grabs will go to either the Phillies or Diamondbacks.
One of the biggest points to make is the fact that the D-backs hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Phillies. That's a huge boost to have this late into the season, and could end up being the difference as to whether they make the playoffs or not.
How Diamondbacks got tiebreaker over Phillies
- April 10: 5-4 win (1-0)
- April 11: 4-3 loss (1-1)
- April 12: 4-3 win (2-1)
- Aug. 31: 2-1 loss (2-2)
- Sept. 1: 7-1 loss (2-3)
- Sept. 2: 1-0 win (3-3)
Since they split the season series, the next tiebreaker focuses on each team's record in their division.
Obviously, the D-backs and Phillies aren't in the same division, so here's how that played out:
- National League East: Phillies (28-24)
- National League West: Diamondbacks (31-18)
That right there sealed the Phillies fate, and it proves why every single game matters this season. All it would've taken is the Phillies to win one of those three games they lost to the D-backs and their playoff outlook would look entirely different with three games remaining in the season.
Diamondbacks can go 3-0 and still miss the playoffs
There's a world where the Diamondbacks sweep the San Diego Padres and still miss out on the playoffs. That would mean this team ended the year on an eight game winning streak with an 88-74 record, but it still wouldn't be good enough.
The Phillies control their own fate, but Arizona could have if the Los Angeles Dodgers would've taken care of business against the Padres on Sept. 24. Sadly, that didn't happen, so now the Diamondbacks need the following situations to occur if they want to make the playoffs.
Phillies magic number is two
Each team has three games left, and all it'll take is any combination of two Phillies wins or Diamondbacks losses to punch Philadelphia's ticket to the postseason.
These are the following scenarios that need to take place for Arizona to make the playoffs:
- Diamondbacks go 3-0, Phillies go 1-2 or 0-3
- If the Diamondbacks go 2-1, the Phillies must go 0-3
Any other scenario will result in the Phillies making the playoffs, putting an end to what would be an incredible turnaround in these final eight games for the D-backs.
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