Dodgers Must Ask If Skubal Is Worth Up to $500 Million
Oct 23, 2026 4:00 PM

With Tarik Skubal’s free agency looming, the Los Angeles Dodgers must decide if the reigning ace warrants a record-shattering investment.

Does it seem realistic that Tarik Skubal could sign a $500 million contract in free agency? Absolutely.

Back on Oct. 2, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel broke down 27 different contract projections from people he spoke with, and one of his sources hinted at a potential 10-year, $500 million deal for Skubal.

Obviously, the Los Angeles Dodgers already have a ton of massive contracts on the books, but that's one of the advantages of being in a big market and having as much success as they do with TV deals and things of that nature.

Remember, a lockout could be on the way, so it would make sense for Skubal to sign his new contract prior to everything going down in order to make sure he gets as much guaranteed money as possible.

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Keep in mind, some of the contracts McDaniel talked about were as low as $176 million, but that all depends on how many years he wants in the deal.

Skubal's range is all over the place

LA has a few incredible pitchers on the roster, one of which is Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Yamamoto didn't exactly lead them to a third consecutive World Series this year, but it's not like that falls solely on his shoulders, far from it.

The Japanese sensation signed a 12-year, $325 million deal, which gave him the largest pitcher guarantee in MLB history.

Skubal, 29, might not be looking for a 12-year deal, but if he is, he knows that's where a large chunk of his money will come from.

No contract projection that McDaniel talked about was longer than 10 years, and it was interesting to see someone propose a 10-year deal to him that was only worth $350 million.

Having a $150 million difference between two 10-year deals is a bit alarming, so it'll be up to his agent, Scott Boras, to get the job done.

Dodgers must act quickly 

Seeing as Skubal could sign as soon as Tuesday, Dec. 1, this is a process that could transpire in the blink of an eye.

Skubal came to LA as part of a three-month rental, though obviously the Dodgers know this could turn into a long-term agreement.

One of the most realistic, and arguably reliable, predictions on the market is from Spotrac.

According to Spotrac, Skubal is projected to land a seven-year, $276 million deal.

If that ends up being the contract he signs, it would be a no-brainer for the Dodgers to keep him, though that's going to be much easier said than done.

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