Oct 18, 2026 3:00 PM
Updated Oct 18, 2026 5:47 PM
The Cleveland Guardians have three keys to win the ALCS over the Tampa Bay Rays in the final three games.
The Cleveland Guardians and Tampa Bay Rays already knew a lot about each other, but the two teams are even more acclimated to each other’s play styles, strengths, and weaknesses after the first four games of the ALCS.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise the series is tied at two games apiece, making the final three games a best-of-three to crown a champion of the American League.
Here is what the Guardians must do in these contests to punch their tickets to the World Series.
Play All-Around Clean Baseball
The Guardians pride themselves on their ability to do the little things right. However, that hasn’t fully been the case for Cleveland so far in the ALCS.
Jose Ramirez committed a costly error in Game 2, and Chase DeLauter followed suit in Game 4's loss. On top of that, Travis Bazzana hasn’t played the cleanest baseball at second base either.
It’s not just the fielding errors that have cost the Guardians, either. The bullpen has been playing with fire at times over the last four games, given the number of free passes they’ve given to the Rays. Tampa’s big seventh inning on Saturday night was set up because of walks.
As the Guardians have learned, the Rays aren't a team that can be given extra outs. If Tampa Bay gets a free pass, it’ll make their opponent play.
The next three games have to be the cleanest all-around baseball the Guardians have played all season.
Oct 13, 2026; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) looks on from the dugout during the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays in game two of the ALCS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn ImagesGuardians Need More Offense
Cleveland came out in Game 1 swinging hot bats and scoring seven runs. Since then, the Guardians have combined for that same run total over the next three games.
Through the first four games altogether, the Guardians have a .256/.308/.376 slash line. Technically, Cleveland’s .684 OPS is higher than Tampa Bay’s .596, but the two teams appear to be headed in opposite directions in the batter’s box.
A worrying sign for the Guardians after Game 4 is that it looked like Tampa Bay’s big three- Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, and Jonathan Aranda- woke up. That’s a massive problem as is, but could be even worse if Cleveland can’t counter it with its own offensive attack.
Parker Messick and Gavin Williams Need To Be Aces
The Guardians have heavily relied on Parker Messick and Gavin Williams all season, and that will remain true in the final stretch of the ALCS. Messick was announced as Sunday’s starter, and Williams is in line to be the starter for the Guardians on Saturday.
Cleveland should feel good about having their two top pitchers on the mound the next two days, but so will the Rays with Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta in line to pitch Game 5 and Game 6.
The ALCS could be decided by a pair of old-fashioned pitchers’ duels, and the Guardians need their two pitchers to come out on top.
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