Win or go home.

That’s the reality for both the Cleveland Guardians and the Chicago White Sox for Saturday night’s Game 5 of the ALDS.

From Cleveland’s perspective, there are a handful of things it must do to ensure a victory, and here is that formula for the Guardians’ success.

There are a handful of pitchers on Chicago’s pitching staff who have had Cleveland’s number this year. Of them, Sean Burke, who will start Game 5 for the White Sox, has been the best.

To put it lightly, Burke has dominated the Guardians throughout the 2026 season.

Looking at his appearances in the regular season and the playoffs, the right-hander owns a 1.19 ERA (3 ER, 22.2 IP). Burke pitched 5.1 innings, gave up one earned run, and recorded six strikeouts in Game 2.

The earlier the Guardians can get Burke out, the better. Not only because of how well he’s pitched against Cleveland, but also because it looks like Chicago’s bullpen is starting to run on fumes.

Chicago’s closer, Grant Taylor, gave up four earned runs in Game 4. After a strong start in Game 1, Hagen Smith has struggled with his command since, and it’s a similar story for Sean Newcomb and Anthony Kay.

How long Burke ends up pitching could indicate which team wins Game 5.

The offensive game plan for the Guardians, White Sox, and really every team in the postseason up to this point has been to score first.

The team that has scored first in the ALDS has won three out of the four games. Plus, teams across MLB that put up the first run are 17-6 in this playoff run.

After Cleveland’s bats were cold and silent in Games 1 and 2 at home, they came alive in Games 3 and 4 on the road. That said, the Guardians’ big innings in the last two contests came in the fourth and sixth innings.

The Guardians simply can’t wait that long to get some runs up on the board if they want a chance at winning Game 5.

Especially with where Cleveland’s bullpen stands, giving the pitching staff some run support would be a great mental boost for the relievers and potentially even a strategic advantage from Stephen Vogt’s perspective.

Speaking of the pitching staff, that’s where another one of the Guardians’ keys to victory lies, literally and figuratively, starting with Gavin Williams.

Williams finished off the ninth inning of Game 4 and will also be on the mound during the first inning of Game 5. In an ideal world, he can give the Guardians four or five clean innings of baseball.

As important as Williams is to Cleveland’s success, Vogt's next big decision will be who comes in after the starter.

Will it be Joey Cantillo? What about Foster Griffin, who was phenomenal in Game 3? Will Tanner Bibee pitch more than one-third of an inning in the ALDS?