The Cleveland Guardians have a better chance of making the playoffs than not based on one model.
The last month has been a roller coaster for the Cleveland Guardians' playoff hopes. At times, the Guardians have looked like locks to play October baseball, and at other times, Cleveland has been on the outside looking in at the postseason bracket.
The good news for this group is that, as they have single-digit games remaining in the regular season, Cleveland’s playoff chances are surging.
Two weeks ago, on September 4, FanGraphs gave the Guardians a 54.6 percent chance of making the playoffs and just a 16.8 percent chance of winning the American League Central.
Since then, Cleveland has won three of their last four series, including a massive three-game set against the Chicago White Sox that briefly put the Guardians in first place in the division.
As Cleveland heads into its final home series of the regular season, their playoff chances are surging. FanGraphs now gives the Guardians a 76.8 percent chance of simply reaching the postseason and a 48.9 percent chance of winning the AL Central.
Sep 16, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan (38) is congratulated by center fielder Petey Halpin (0) after scoring a run on a two-RBI single by right fielder Jo Adell (7) during the third inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn ImagesCleveland’s biggest threats in its hunt for October come down to a few different teams on different sides of the postseason race coin.
In the division, the Guardians are battling the White Sox, and this race could very well come down to the final games of the year. On Friday, the teams were tied in record, but Chicago holds the first-place tiebreaker over Cleveland, giving it a slight edge in postseason seeding.
On the Wild Card side of things, it’s the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays who are right on Cleveland’s tail for the final postseason spot. Both teams are 2.0 games back right now, but they're also playing each other this weekend.
The model clearly likes where the Guardians are at and believes there’s a better-than-even chance Cleveland will make the postseason. However, the bottom line is that all of that depends on the Guardians continuing to win at the same pace they have over the last few weeks.
Cleveland controls its own destiny; keep winning, and they’ll be in the playoffs. If they start to slide over the final nine games, these playoff hopes will quickly start to slide.
