Aug 12, 2026 5:25 PM
Updated Aug 13, 2026 2:34 AM

The Cleveland Guardians have significantly dropped in FanGraphs' playoff chances over the last few weeks.

The Cleveland Guardians went all in at MLB's trade deadline, acquiring four new players to immediately impact the big-league team.

The front office made it clear that they wanted the Guardians not only to reach the postseason but also to go deep into October.

Unfortunately, everything has gone in the opposite direction for the Guardians over the last week, and truly the last few months.

At one point earlier this year, it looked like the Guardians would walk away with the American League Central, and could even clinch one of the two first-round byes in the American League.

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That reality is now gone, and Cleveland is doing everything it can to simply stay alive in the postseason race, let alone win the division. 

On May 24, the Guardians had just beaten the Philadelphia Phillies in an impressive three-game set, were 32-23, had just a 64.8 percent chance to win the AL Central, and a 77.9 percent chance to reach the playoffs, per FanGraphs' model.

It's been downhill for Cleveland since then, especially after the All-Star Break.

The Guardians own a 7-16 record since the Midsummer Classic, and have dropped as low as fourth in the division earlier this week.

Cleveland's odds to reach the postseason are now just 31.7 percent, with the Detroit Tigers (36.8 percent) and Chicago White Sox (48.6 percent) having better odds, according to the model.

Aug 8, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cleveland Guardians designated hitter Chase DeLauter (24) reacts after striking out against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn ImagesAug 8, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cleveland Guardians designated hitter Chase DeLauter (24) reacts after striking out against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The White Sox have the best chance of winning the division at 36.7 percent, compared to the Guardians' 19.9 percent. 

The reason for Cleveland's slide in the playoff chances simply comes down to the lineup's inability to score runs.

The Guardians have a .677 OPS this season with runners in scoring position. Since the All-Star Break, the team has a .673 OPS in that same situation and was a key reason for Cleveland's loss to the Tigers on Tuesday evening. 

It's been an issue for the Guardians all year, and continues to hurt the team.

Despite Cleveland having scored the third-fewest runs in baseball this season, all hope is not lost for the Guardians and their playoff dreams.

Cleveland does a favorable schedule down the stretch and still have a very strong rotation, which can be the backbone of a playoff team.

The thing is, the Guardians can't wait any longer to turn the numbers around. 

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