The Cleveland Guardians are still alive in the MLB playoff hunt.
The Cleveland Guardians haven’t made things easy for them this season, but they're still not out of the playoff race and have actually been making up ground over the last week.
However, what are the chances the Guardians are actually playing October baseball?
According to one prominent projection model, the odds are slim, but it’s not impossible.
FanGraphs recently released its updated postseason forecasts, giving the Guardians a 5.3% chance of securing a playoff spot.
Of course, if Cleveland were to make it to the playoffs, it would be through the last wild-card spot. FanGraphs gives the Guardians a 0% chance of catching the Detroit Tigers in the American League Central. Heading into Friday’s action, they held a 9.5-game lead over the Guardians in the division.
The Guardians may have a slim chance of reaching the playoffs according to this model, but they clearly haven't given up the fight.
Sep 8, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan (38) celebrates with second baseman Brayan Rocchio (4) after the Guardians beat the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images.Last weekend, the Guardians took three out of four games against the Tampa Bay Rays, jumping ahead of them in the standings.
Cleveland also clinched their season series against the Rays, which could be important once all 162 games have been played, since the head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker in the playoffs.
The Guardians still have one more game to play against the Kansas City Royals, but their series is unfolding incredibly similarly to what happened down in Florida.
On Tuesday, Cleveland defeated the Royals, jumped them in the playoff race, and guaranteed the Guardians the better head-to-head record.
The problem now is that even if the Guardians continue to win, that still might not be enough to secure their spot in the playoffs.
The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners are still above the Guardians, and Cleveland needs them to hit a roadblock. Instead, the Mariners are 6-4 and Texas is 7-3 in their last 10 games.
The Guardians do still have three games left against the Rangers, the final series of the season.
A lot has to go in Cleveland’s favor for the team that was in the ALCS just a year ago to be back in the dance, as seen with FanGraphs’ new projection.
That said, there’s still plenty of baseball to be played, and the Guardians are by no means out of the postseason picture.