The Cleveland Guardians could already have a chip on their
The Cleveland Guardians certainly haven’t made it easy on themselves, but they’re still the reigning back-to-back American League Central champions and have won the division three of the last four years.
The team is still waiting to reach its ultimate goal of winning a World Series, but it can’t be denied that the Guardians have been among the most competitive teams in baseball over the last five years.
However, FanGraphs believes Cleveland’s reign in the Central could be coming to an end in 2026. In fact, they don’t even believe the Guardians are a legitimate contender in the division or a playoff threat.
FanGraphs predicts Cleveland will finish the 2026 season with just over 75 wins, placing fourth in the Central Division.
With that win total, FanGraphs is giving the Guardians just a 5.6 percent chance to win the division, 7.4 percent chance to reach the postseason via a Wild Card spot, and a 13 percent chance of simply making the playoffs.
Apr 21, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) is congratulated by left fielder Steven Kwan (38) and shortstop Brayan Rocchio (4) after hitting a three run home run off New York Yankees starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt (36) during the third inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn ImagesIn case you were wondering, FanGraphs gives the Guardians just a 0.3 percent chance of winning the World Series. The teams FanGraphs forecast to finish ahead of the Guardians in 2026, in order, are the Minnesota Twins (third), Kansas City Royals (second), and Detroit Tigers (first).
Having the Tigers ahead of the Guardians makes sense; they would have won the division last year if it wasn’t for a historic collapse over the final six weeks. Even the Royals, who have a strong pitching staff, have made improvements in their lineup and have a true MVP candidate and superstar in Bobby Witt Jr., so it’s understandable that FanGraphs is favorable to those teams.
Sure, the Twins have a solid rotation, but it’s hard to view their bullpen or lineup as better than Cleveland’s right now.
The guardians have a tendency to defy odds. This is the same model that gave the Guardiansa 0.7 percent chance of winning the division on July 14 last season, and they ended up accomplishing that feat.
It feels like Cleveland is already being counted out before spring training even begins, but that type of chip on their shoulder could fuel another memorable season for the Guardians.
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