Projection model gives insight into what type of season the Cleveland Guardians can expect from Brayan Rocchio.
Brayan Rocchio will get plenty of playing time for the Cleveland Guardians in spring training and into the regular season, too. Stephen Vogt mentioned earlier this offseason that Rocchio would see plenty of time at shortstop, but the defense isn’t the issue for him; the question has always been about Rocchio’s bat.
Unfortunately, FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection model isn’t too high on Rocchio taking a step forward in the batter’s box next season. The forecast system predicts Rocchio to slash .236/.304/.356 with an OPS+ of 83, meaning the 25-year-old’s OPS would finish 17 percent worse than the average big-league hitter.
There are two encouraging numbers in ZiPS projections for Rocchio.
The first is that the model is expecting Rocchio to see a slight uptick in power across the 2026 season. Last year, the switch-hitter had a .340 slugging percentage, five home runs, and 18 doubles. ZiPS believes those numbers could increase to a .356 slugging percentage, 26 doubles, and 10 home runs.
If Rocchio isn’t going to hit for contact or average, seeing a little more pop in his bat would be a welcome sign for the lineup.
Oct 1, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians shortstop Brayan Rocchio (4) celebrates after scoring a home run in the eighth inning against the Detroit Tigers during game two of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn ImagesThe other encouraging number is the projected jump in Rocchio’s on-base percentage. Right now, he has a career OBP of .293 and had a walk-rate of just 5.7 percent in 2025.
The first step to getting on track is choosing the right pitches to swing at. With ZiPS predicting Rocchio to have a .304 on-base percentage next season, the model at least believes he’ll have some improved plate discipline next season.
The question is, will these numbers be enough to secure Rocchio’s spot as Cleveland’s future shortstop?
The Guardians must make a decision on his future before other middle infield prospects such as Travis Bazzana, Juan Brito, and Angel Genao reach the big leagues, two of whom could be on the MLB roster as early as Opening Day.
Rocchio should consistently have a WAR above 1.0, just because of his solid defense, but these offensive numbers from ZiPS may not be enough for him to be Cleveland’s long-term answer in the infield.
Guardians Roundtable also offers a fan community and message board. We’d love to have you join us to talk all things Guardians. Click the “Join” button at the top of the page to join our community for free.