Cleveland Guardians' Gavin Williams finished 2025 strongly, but can he carry that over into 2026?
Gavin Williams proved during the second half of the 2025 season that he can not only be the ace of the Cleveland Guardians' rotation but also be one of the top pitchers in all of baseball.
After the All-Star Break, Williams recorded a 2.18 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts. He even came out a way from a no-hitter against the New York Mets.
The big question is: Can Williams sustain these numbers through a full 162-game season?
A sub-3.00 ERA over 30 or more starts would be asking a lot from Williams and would surely inch him closer to the Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal tier, but FanGraphs’ ZiPS model does foresee an All-Star caliber season from the Guardians pitcher.
The famous predictive model projects Williams to make 29 starts (150.3 IP) in 2026 and post a 3.59 ERA, with an ERA+ of 118, meaning the right-hander would be 18 percent better than the average MLB pitcher in 2026.
One of the most encouraging pieces of this prediction is that ZiPS still views Williams as someone who will be a slightly above-average punchout pitcher. In 2025, Big Rig finished the year with a strikeout rate of 24.6 percent, and the model is projecting him to finish with a 24.2 percent.
That does have a chance to increase, though, as Williams did a great job of developing his sweeper throughout the season, which had a put-away rate of 25.9 percent. A full offseason of progress with this pitch could easily help Williams miss more bats.
Apr 21, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams (32)throws a pitch during the first inning against the New York Yankees at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn ImagesOne slightly concerning number is that FanGraphs still believes Williams could struggle with his command at times, which could lead to a higher walk rate.
Last season, Williams led all qualified pitchers in walks heading into the All-Star Break. He cleaned that up after the Midsummer classic, but still gave a free pass to 11.8 percent of the batters he faced all season.
ZiPS is predicting Williams to have a walk rate of 9.7 percent and issue 3.7 BB/9. That would be an improvement from a year ago, but still something to monitor.
Walks may always have been a struggle for Williams, but if he can log an ERA just above 3.00 over 150 innings in 2026 as FanGraphs predicts, the Guardians would be ecstatic with that production.