Parker Messick made a big impact for the Cleveland Guardians in a small sample size. What can he do over a full season?
The Cleveland Guardians’ September comeback was in large part thanks to the team’s elite six-man rotation. In the middle of that group was rookie Parker Messick, who made his MLB debut on August 20 and hit the ground running.
The 24-year-old left-hander had a more than successful first MLB stint with the team. In seven starts, Messick logged a 2.72 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. The big question now is, how will Messick perform in 2026?
FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection can give us a better idea of what type of pitcher Messick could be over a full 162-game season.
First up, the model doesn’t believe Messick can sustain a sub-.300 ERA throughout a full year, which is understandable. If Messick was able to do that, we’d be talking about him as a Cy Young candidate.
The computer predicts that the left-hander will have a 3.98 ERA over 124.3 innings next season. That would still give him a projected ERA+ of 106, meaning Messick’s ERA would be six perfect better than league average, and there’s certainly no issue with that in the first year.
Sep 19, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick (77) throws to the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn ImagesOne of Messick’s biggest strengths in the minors, which also helped him over his first seven starts in the majors, is his elite command. In those seven starts, Messick only issued six walks, coming out to a walk-rate of 3.6 percent.
Again, this is likely unsustainable over a full year, but ZiPS’ projection that Messick will have a walk-rate of nearly eight percent feels a little high considering what we’ve seen from the left-hander at each level.
As for Messick’s projection strikeout rate, the computer predicts him to strikeout 22.6 percent of the batters he faced, which is nearly identical to what it was in 2025.
Messick will be fighting for a spot in the rotation during spring training, and there’s a chance he starts the year in the minors. However, it’s inevitable that the Guardians will need another starter at some point throughout the year.
Cleveland knows that it has an above-average arm in Messick, and the model backs that up, too.
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