Can Cleveland Guardians' Steven Kwan have a bounce-back season at the plate?
Steven Kwan has been one of the best pure hitters in baseball ever since he made his MLB debut in 2022.
Whether it be trade rumors or a lingering wrist injury, the two-time All-Star didn’t look like that same hitter during the second half of the 2025 season, raising some questions about what type of player the Cleveland Guardians will get in 2026.
After an up-and-down season, Kwan was even surprisingly left off MLB Network’s top-10 left fielders heading into next year.
Thankfully, FanGraphs’ ZiPS projection model does believe that Kwan is in store for somewhat of a bounce-back season.
The computer is forecasting Kwan to finish 2026 with a .281/.349/.384 slash line, which would come out to an OPS+ of 104, meaning his OPS would finish four percent better than league average.
If these truly are the stats that Kwan finishes the season with, it’d represent a balance between his 2024 and 2025 seasons, which is a realistic
Apr 21, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan (38) watches the ball after hitting a single during the third inning against the New York Yankees at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn ImagesAt one point during Kwan’s career, he showed the potential of having some pop in his swing. ZiPS still views Kwan as a player who can put a jolt in a ball when it's high and inside, but overall, not the power threat he was at the start of 2024.
FanGraphs is predicting Kwan to hit 10 home runs and 24 doubles in 2026, which is pretty much on par with his career season stats.
One of Kwan’s calling cards is his inability to strikeout, and ZiPS believes that will be more of the same for the leadoff hitter next season. The model predicts Kwan will have a strikeout rate of 8.7 percent in 2026, exactly the same as in 2025, when Kwan ranked in the 99th percentile.
With the ABS being in play, there is a world where Kwan’s strikeout rate gets even better.
While it’s encouraging to see one model high on Kwan bouncing back at the plate next season. It’s important to remember that he offers much more value outside of just in the batter’s box.
This model doesn’t project defensive stats, but there’s no reason to think that Kwan won’t once again be one of the best left fielders in baseball.
It will be interesting to see whether Kwan’s numbers by the end of the 2026 season are closer to the FanGraphs ’ prediction, or if he’ll exceed or underachieve on them.
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