In news that will come as a surprise to no one, Seattle Mariners manager Dan Wilson is on the hot seat.

That's what happens when a team that is supposed to go to the World Series enters play on Sept. 3 at 66-74 and five games back in its own division, especially what the division is historically poor.

If the Mariners miss the playoffs, in this version of the American League West, it will be a colossal failure. If they make the playoffs, in this version of the American League West, it will be nice because there's more baseball to play and watch, but no one will feel particularly good about it all.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today already said that Wilson likely won't be back if the team misses the playoffs, and Andy McCullough of 'The Athletic,' went deeper on Thursday.

Granted, his message was only the result of a mailbag question from a reader, but it's still significant to see it in writing:

The Mariners do not play a particularly crisp brand of baseball. Nearly a quarter of their at-bats end in strikeouts. They rank 27th in FanGraphs’ metric measuring base-running value and 30th in defensive value. The lack of fundamentals looks more problematic when the talent is underperforming. And that does reflect on the manager. Which is why he probably won’t be the manager next season.

I like to think that I've been pretty consistent on this, but let me recap it here for everyone involved.

1) Early in the season, I defended a lot of Dan Wilson's moves, whether it be with the lineup or the bullpen. I recognize the value in getting certain guys rest. I recognize the value in playing guys who are paid to play in the positions they are expected to perform in. I also recognize the value in putting guys in different spots and seeing what they can do.

I didn't tend to get up-in-arms about decisions made in April or May, because I think it's important to take a big picture lens.

1A) I also recognize that a baseball season is a long season, with a lot of factors, and the manager isn't everything that's good or bad about a season. Injuries to Cal Raleigh, JP Crawford (3x), Matt Brash (2x), Gabe Speier, Brendan Donovan (more than 90 games missed), Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Bryce Miller, Cooper Criswell and Carlos Vargas all add up. They are all important, in the same way that injuries to Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Jose Berrios, Bowden Francis, Anthony Santander, Daulton Varsho and Addison Barger have impacted the Blue Jays team that beat the Mariners in the ALCS.

Injuries and player regression (Raleigh) are important, and they happen, at least in part, independent of the manager.

2) I also said all along that I didn't believe Wilson deserved to be fired in season, regardless of how the team played. I believe that someone who goes to the ALCS in his first full season as manager, for a team with historically low franchise success, deserves a second full year as manager. I believe that's fair.

Maybe you don't believe that "fair" matters. And that's fine. But I do, and I'm entitled to my opinion just like you are. There's nothing wrong with that.

3) As the season has gone on, I've questioned decisions that have been made, but I've also been quick to point out when Wilson's hands are tied by various factors. Again, I haven't defended everything, but I haven't blamed him for everything either.

4) I've also said, repeatedly, that at the end of the second year, you will have a full picture of information at your disposal. At that point, if the Mariners move on from Wilson, I'll be more OK with it. I want these decisions made with the full picture painted, not a half picture. I'll still feel bad for Wilson the person, and I'll still feel like this isn't all his fault, but I'll at least understand the process more.

Just something to think about...

1) Part of the reason that the Mariners have been so poor defensively this year is because of the performance of Crawford at shortstop, especially early in the season. He's slated to be a free agent at the end of the year, and the team should get better with a full season of Colt Emerson.

2) Arozarena is a poorly regarded defender in left field, and he's also slated to be a free agent. It doesn't mean the Mariners will definitely get better there, but there is an opportunity to.

3) The Mariners are also not a particularly athletic team these days, which clearly impacts the baserunning metric. Perhaps they are able to add more pieces in the offseason that can help on that front. Not a definite, but just a maybe.

Again, this doesn't account for everything, and the regressions from Julio Rodriguez on defense have been especially stark, but Wilson didn't build this roster, and he isn't responsible for the aging of some of his players.

The most recent 'Refuse to Lose Territory' podcast, featuring Buster Olney of ESPN, is out. You can listen here, or you can watch in the YouTube player below.