With labor unrest coming, no one knows exactly what the winter will hold for the M's, but one this is clear: Arozarena has been the team's best offensive player.
As the Seattle Mariners (65-74) continue to hold onto faint playoff hopes, outfielder Randy Arozarena continues to put up a solid season.
Arozarena, an All-Star for the second consecutive year, has gone 5-for-10 in this series against the Boston Red Sox, registering two home runs and seven RBIs to go along with four runs scored.
He now has 22 home runs and 65 RBIs, to go along with 20 steals, making him the best offensive player on a generally poor offensive club.
A free agent at the end of the season, Arozarena is hitting free agency on the heels of six consecutive 20/20 campaigns. He will turn 32 years old in February and there are major questions about what will happen this offseason for him.
Let's take a look at the options here for the Mariners - and Arozarena - moving forward.
The qualifying offer
The qualifying offer is a one-year contract worth a little over $22 million. If the Mariners elect not to offer one to Arozarena, then he's free to hit free agency with no repercussions.
If the Mariners do offer him one, he can accept the deal and return to Seattle on the one-year deal. And if he declines, he'll hit free agency, but if a new team signs him, they'll have to forfeit a high draft pick to the Mariners. Players tend to not like the qualifying offer because teams are leery of giving up a draft pick, which suppresses the player's market.
The qualifying offer system could be changed in the next collective bargaining agreement fight, coming this Dec. 1.
It seems smart for the Mariners to offer the qualifying offer to Arozarena. If he accepts, they get a good player back to help anchor the middle of their tepid offense. If he declines and signs elsewhere, they get a good draft pick, which we know is important for them.
The Mariners did not offer qualifying offers to Mitch Haniger or Teoscar Hernandez in the last five years, so it's not a guarantee that they use this mechanism. Why? Perhaps they don't want to risk Arozarena accepting and being forced into paying $22 million to one player for one season.
That would seemingly be the wrong decision, but it's not my money, either.
How about the free agent dollars?
If the Mariners have any chance at retaining Arozarena, it seems like the qualifying offer is their only shot. While $22 million is a lot for one season, it seems like it will be less annually than Arozarena gets on the open market.
You take your pick of how it happens, but Arozarena seems destined for at least $100 million this winter, especially if he signs before the impending lockout. Could get het three years and $100 million? Sure. Could get he four for $100? Sure. Could he get 4 for more than $100? Yup, that could happen too. Maybe somebody even gives a fifth year as some kind of option year.
I don't think the Mariners want to be on the hook for $100 million, because that would be the biggest free agent deal ever given to a hitter by this regime, so I don't think they'll be in the running in free agency.
And I really don't think they want to take on Arozarena's age 32-35 or 32-36 years, especially as his athleticism declines and there are already questions about his effort and defensive ability.
Seattle Mariners left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) hits a RBI single against the Boston Red Sox during the fifth inning at Fenway Park. Brian Fluharty-Imagn ImagesHow about the free agent options?
It seems logical that Arozarena will get American League East bites this offseason, especially since he's shown he can handle the division in his time with the Tampa Bay Rays.
The Toronto Blue Jays have Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, Brett Bateman and Jesus Sanchez as possible outfielders next year. None are right-handed, and we know they have money to spend, especially with significant dollars (Kevin Gausman, Jeff Hoffman, George Springer) off the books.
These same Red Sox are also running out an outfield/DH group of Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida. There are no right-handed hitters in that group, either, and we know they also have money to spend. They'd probably need to make a roster move to make it a reality though.
Beyond that? Never discount the Dodgers, though they do have Mookie Betts, Hernandez and Kyle Tucker locked in, as well as Tommy Edman.
The Yankees could lose Trent Grisham in free agency, and they could look for a bat as well to pair with Aaron Judge, and Cody Bellinger. But, youngster Spencer Jones is in the mix there too.
What about the Mariners outfield if Arozarena doesn't return?
There are questions there for sure, and Victor Robles is a free agent also. Julio Rodriguez is locked in, as is Dominic Canzone. Lazaro Montes is an option, though he's probably best suited at designated hitter, and Michael Arroyo could play left field, though he's very much a work in progress there.
And don't discount the idea of Brendan Donovan returning to the outfield, especially if the team finds a capable third baseman via free agency or trade.
Of note
The most recent edition of the 'Refuse to Lose Territory' podcast is out. You can listen here, or you can watch in the YouTube player below.


