Heading into the 2026 season, we generally think of the ABS challenge system as a good thing. We're all tired of seeing Seattle Mariners hitters have good at-bats, just to have an egregious call change the outcome of said at-bat.

Given that the challenge system is not intrusive or time consuming, most fans seem to be on board.

However, is there a chance that the ABS system could actually negatively impact a handful of Mariners pitchers, namely George Kirby and Luis Castillo?

It's a point we talked about on the most recent episodes of the 'Refuse to Lose' podcast:

Olney was on Thursday's edition of the podcast and talked about this very issue:

"...Yeah, I am going to be really curious about if George Kirby's perspective changes. I can remember being in Toronto last year after a playoff game and hearing him talk about, 'Well, you know what? This is the way that I pitch. This is, this is how I do things' and sort of resisting the idea that he needs to shift from being a nibbler.

I do think that kind of perspective is going to be pushed by the ABS challenge system, because you're not going be able to trick hitters as much as you did in the past. And hitters, I think, are going to protect the strike zone more versus feeling like on a two-strike pitch that they necessarily have to chase outside the strike zone.

Luis Castillo is definitely among the pitchers that I think could be affected by it, because that's his style at this stage in his career. He's got to try to get hitters to follow him out of the strike zone, and that's not going to be as successful as it has been in the past."

I think that Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller are willing (and able) to pitch in the strike zone and be aggressive in attacking hitters. I think they'll be generally OK in the challenge world, I think that Kirby is more of a perfectionist who is looking for the perfect pitch, and he may make pitches that are considered perfect, but are challenged and called balls.

But, there is certainly a limit to how much this will impact them, and I want to make this clear:

"Now look, I don't want to make too big a deal of this, right? If George Kirby throws a front door sinker or a front door two-seamer in the bottom of the first inning, and there's two outs and nobody on, and the pitch is really a ball but it's called a strike, I don't think the hitter is going to challenge that pitch, and George Kirby is still going to get away with it. Because the hitters are going to have to be strategic about how they use their challenges.

Top of the 4th, Mariners are up 4-1, and there's 2 outs and nobody on, I don't know that somebody's gonna challenge the curveball that hits the bottom of the zone that Kirby is happy to live with. But if it's 3-2 and the bases are loaded and there's one out in the sixth, and it's a 2-2 count and Kirby makes what he thinks is a perfect painted fastball on the inside corner, but it's really a ball, and now we go to 3-2 and now Kirby has to come into the middle of the strike zone, that's where I think you're gonna see some issues, right?

Every pitcher wants to make a perfect pitch. Every pitcher wants to have a hitter get themselves out. Every pitcher would love to hit the corner on every pitch. But those pitches now, those close pitches, are gonna get reversed at times, and they're gonna be reversed in some big moments because hitters are not going to chase as much because they have the challenge in their pocket.."

The Mariners open the season on March 26 at home against the Cleveland Guardians.

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