At the end of the day, when we think about the frustrations of the 2026 Seattle Mariners season, we are going to focus on three things:

1) The conversation around the job status of manager Dan Wilson, regardless of what the ultimate resolution is.

2) The injury issues that the team was forced to absorb throughout the year: Cal Raleigh, Brendan Donovan, Bryce Miller, Gabe Speier, Matt Brash, Carlos Vargas, Randy Arozarena and JP Crawford have all spent time on the injured list.

Donovan (2), Crawford (3) and Brash (2) have all had multiple stints on the injured list. Vargas hasn't pitched yet at all. While injury is not a full-blown excuse for the teams' 56-64 record and underwhelming performance, it is part of the story that we will think about.

3) We will focus on the offense, which has regressed in numerous ways, including Cal Raleigh going from a 60-home run MVP finalist to a shell of himself. The Mariners enter play on Wednesday with the lowest batting average in baseball, and they at or near the bottom in many other categories.

But while those things will get the attention, it is fair to wonder something else as well: Is the M's starting rotation as good as we've believed that it is?

For the last three years, we've operated under the assumption that the collection of M's starting pitchers is among the best in baseball, and arguably the best overall in the American League. They've been young, under team control, reasonably durable, and they all feature electric stuff.

But are they "the five aces" that we've thought they were? (Remember that Luis Castillo was in that group from 2023-25 before being traded two weeks ago).

Entering play on Wednesday, the Mariners' rotation ERA is 3.71, which is seventh in the majors. In 2025, it was 13th at 3.97 though George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller all missed time). In 2024, it was first at 3.38. So, while it's still in the top half of the league this year, it's not at the top of the league like it was in 2024, so again, is the rotation as much of a sure thing as we've thought it was?

We tackled this topic on the latest 'Refuse to Lose Territory' podcast by talking with TJ Mathewson of the 'Marine Layer' podcast.

"Take that 2024 season, for example. So 2024, we saw the first big breakout of Bryan Woo in the final two months of the season, and he led that to a great 2025. Well, the league has adjusted to Bryan Woo this season, and it has become a point where he's pitching on the road, he'll pitch in Yankee Stadium this week, and none of us, none of the three of us here on this podcast have any confidence in him pitching on the road. That's a negative.

That's not the sign of an elite rotation, right? Look at Bryce Miller. Bryce Miller had that great 2024 season with a sub-3 ERA .He's battling injuries in 2025. He gets off to this great start this year, but all of a sudden, his last handful of starts, the velocity's been down and he's been getting hit around a ton, and Bryce Miller starts to look a lot more ordinary. Again, a good pitcher, but not a great pitcher. And then we get to Logan Gilbert, much of the same, battled injuries last season after an elite 2024. This year has had some insanely good stretches, and earlier in the year wasn't quite as good, not really as consistent. And everything I just described is exactly what George Kirby is as a pitcher.He's up, he's down, he's up, he's down, he's up, he's down. And when you put all that kinda stuff together, it does lead you to stretches where the rotation is insane, and it looks great, and it looks unbeatable, but it also tilts back on the other side where the rotation, for a team that is built around its rotation, its rotation is not delivering enough all the time. And it, that especially showed up, Brady, out of all the reasons they lost in the ALCS last year, the rotation did not give them a chance at all. If the Mariners had a 2024 version of the rotation against the Blue Jays, they're playing in the World Series, and we don't talk about Dan Wilson in game 7. But the problem is the Mariners' starters could not deliver in that series."

It should be noted that this interview was taped before Woo delivered five scoreless innings on the road agains the Yankees in Tuesday's 4-1 loss, but the point remains, he has struggled on the road with an ERA greater than six this season. 

The most recent 'Refuse to Lose Territory' podcast is out, featuring Lyle and TJ from the Marine Layer Podcast. You can listen here or you can watch in the YouTube player below