With a lockout looming in just over a month, the Seattle Mariners are about to embark on an incredibly important offseason.

After going 76-86 and missing the playoffs, the Mariners are going to undergo some serious changes.

They need a new manager and several new members of the coaching staff, and there will be player changes made through trades, free agency, demotions and prospect promotions.

I talked about this earlier this week on the 'Refuse to Lose Territory' podcast, and I'm bringing it here too with a little more clarity and description.

Five members of the 2026 Seattle Mariners that won't be back in 2027.

JP Crawford is a free agent. I'm aware of that. I think it's possible that he's back, so he's not on this list. Could he start at shortstop at the beginning of the year while Colt Emerson works out some things in Triple-A? Maybe. Could he start at third while Brendan Donovan plays a utility role? Also maybe. Could he be a depth infielder who serves a bench role? I doubt it, but he's said he wants to be back, so I think the door is ajar.

Also, Jhonny Pereda is not on this list. I think there's a chance that the Mariners want to give Cal Raleigh more time at designated hitter, and therefore, I think they could spend more on a backup who will play more regularly. That said, it's not a given. I'm not sold that Pereda will be back on the big league roster, but I think he's more likely than the others.

Also, I didn't include the lowest hanging fruit here. I know that Hoby Milner won't be back. I would expect that Weston Wilson won't be back. I think there's a high likelihood that Michael Rucker won't be back. I didn't include them. With that said:

He's a free agent. He's about to be 33. He dealt with leg issues and he hit .125 in 32 games. He's the latest in a failed line of right-handed platoon options. He'll play somewhere in 2027, but it won't be with the Mariners.

Arozarena is 31 and headed for 32. He had 2-plus excellent years in Seattle and he made two All-Star teams. His time here will be remembered fondly, but the M's aren't shelling out big money for a 32-year-old outfielder with questionable defensive abilities, effort questions and leadership questions.

They'll offer a qualifying offer. He'll say no. The M's will get a draft pick and he'll get a nice tribute video when he returns to Seattle next.

I think there is a mild chance that Robles is back, but I think it's slim. He has a $9 million team option that is sure to be declined, but the M's still have a robust outfield group with Donovan, Michael Arroyo, Laz Montes, Julio Rodriguez and Dom Canzone. And that doesn't even factor in Luke Raley or anyone else the Mariners will bring in in the offseason. 

Robles was a spark plug in 2024 for this team. Injuries cost him a lot of 2025 and 2026, and now, he's going to hit the open market.

Yes, I think the M's are going to replace both Robles and Raley on the roster. It's too bad, because Raley really is a nice player when he's healthy. He just hasn't been healthy enough in Seattle. After hitting 22 home runs and helping carry the offense in 2024, he played just 73 games in 2025, hitting only .202. And he hit 15 home runs in 2026, in basically the first half of the season, before shutting down with an arm injury.

He can hit for power, drop a bunt, and play all three outfield positions, which makes him valuable. I really do like his game, but he's going to be owed $3 million or so in arbitration. I think the M's could non-tender him, or I think they could keep him and trade him, but with Montes and Canzone offering many of the same skills, he just feels too redundant.

Obviously, this is the toughest call and the most difficult decision. Kirby has two years left of team control, and if the M's don't think they can sign him long-term, they should explore the trade market. The Milwaukee Brewers (Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta) are proof that you can trade good players and the sky won't cave in. The M's need a talent infusion on this roster, and trading a pitcher is the best way to do it. 

The presumptive lockout makes it difficult to trade Logan Gilbert with only one year left of team control. I don't think Kade Anderson or Bryan Woo are going anywhere. I don't think Bryce Miller can bring the kind of true roster infusion this team needs, and while I think Emerson Hancock could net a nice return, Kirby's return is probably greater.

I think this is the offseason to explore a pitcher trade, and Kirby feels the most likely.