
It's not that the M's roster is not built with a good idea in mind, it's that it's built on a bit of a house of cards.
Over the last two weeks, I've been going back-and-forth with Seattle Mariners fans on social media about the state of the roster, the lineup, the platoons and the managerial decisions related to those platoons.
Admittedly, I think I've been a little defensive in my positions. I think some of you have been a little aggressive in yours. That's fair for all of us to admit. Does it mean that either one of us is more right than the other? Not necessarily. All sides to the arguments are valid, which is what makes the topic passionate for many fans.
As I've thought more over the last 48 hours, I've come up with what I think is a logical set of thoughts - and ideas for moving future. So, let's examine here.
The Mariners roster concept is well-built
The Mariners didn't sign Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. They didn't trade for Byron Buxton, or any other outfielder you thought was available this offseason. We know that, as a result, they've built a quartet of outfielders that are designed to play against both left and right-handed pitchers.
We can argue about spending or trades or whatever we want, but that's what they did, so that's what we'll talk about.
Let's say this: In a perfect world, if the Mariners are playing a right-handed pitcher, Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley are both starting.
Canzone is a career .214 hitter against left-handers, while Raley is a .182 hitter against left-handers. Now, Canzone hit .276 against left-handers in 43 games last season, so he probably doesn't need to be lifted as regularly as Raley, but let's assume that a perfect world allows both of them to be pinch-hit for by Robles and Refsnyder if a lefty comes in.
Seattle Mariners right fielder Dominic Canzone (8) hits a double against the Athletics during the fourth inning at T-Mobile Park. Joe Nicholson-Imagn ImagesThe issue that's arisen late in games is that after the right-handed platoon comes in, they are often in the game for another critical at-bat, which almost always happens against a right-hander. I would argue that having either one of the right-handed platoon hit against a right-hander should not be a death sentence for the offense, but again, in a perfect world, Leo Rivas would be on the bench as a switch-hitter to help alleviate any concerns the Mariners have about one of the right-handed bats.
It's a fairly sound thought process, but there are issues that we're clearly seeing.
1) This plan requires everyone on the roster to be healthy. Because Robles is on the injured list, the plan doesn't work as well. Because Brendan Donovan is on the injured list, Rivas is forced into a starting role, which takes out his ability to alleviate late in games.
That often leaves the Mariners over exposed to undesirable matchups after the initial favorable matchup has expired.
2) It also requires everyone on your roster to be hitting well. As opposed to one Kyle Tucker or one Cody Bellinger, the Mariners need to have four guys going at the same time. While this plan is supposed to help optimize the success of each individual player, if individual players aren't having success, the plan looks worse.
How can this be alleviated in the future?
Well, everyone needs to be healthy and get back to the role they were designed for. That's number one.
But beyond that, the M's should have an additional plan in their back pocket when Colt Emerson comes up to the big leagues. For sake of this argument, I'm saying that Rivas has been sent down to make room for him. I'm also saying that the team is healthy and Robles and Donovan are back, with Will Wilson and Connor Joe being sent down.
Let's play out the hypothetical scenario.
A RHP is on the mound for the opponent and Cal Raleigh is catching, Josh Naylor is at first, Cole Young is at second, JP Crawford is at short, Emerson is at third, with Randy Arozarena in LF, Julio Rodriguez in CF and Raley in right. Brendan Donovan is the DH.
In this scenario, let's say the opponent goes to a lefty, which forces Raley out of the game. Refsnyder hits for him. If the team goes to a righty later in the game, then Canzone would available to hit for him. Should the team go back to a lefty later, Robles is available.
Seattle Mariners right fielder Rob Refsnyder (30) hits an RBI-sacrifice fly against the Athletics during the sixth inning at T-Mobile Park. Joe Nicholson-Imagn ImagesThe simple act of Emerson being here opens up the possibility to have one of the lefties on the bench, which kept the flexibility the Mariners like.
Bonus scenario
If Arozarena is the DH and Donovan is in left, the Mariners would also have the freedom to pinch hit for Emerson or Young against a tough lefty late, while being able to put Donovan in the infield and one of the excess outfielders into the game in left.
That also would give them some more flexibility late in games.
What about until all that happens?
Until Emerson is called up, and until Robles is healthy, manager Dan Wilson probably should be OK taking a little more risk in letting Canzone hit against some lefties. It certainly isn't the most optimal thing that the M's can do, but until their optimized plan is ready again, it's probably for the best.
If a lefty comes in and forces Raley out for Refsnyder, at least you still have Canzone in the lineup later in the game against a righty, and you'd just have to trust that Refsnyder, as a veteran, can put up a representative at-bat in those scenarios.
The Mariners will open up a three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday at 5:15 p.m. PT.
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