Seattle Mariners Trades: How Looming Lockout Complicates Things This Winter

The Seattle Mariners went 76-86 this season, missing the playoffs just one year after getting to the American League Championship Series.

With an offense that finished at or near the bottom of the league in several categories, a bullpen that leaked in the second half of the season and a rotation that regressed, there is clearly a re-shuffling of the deck needed for the M's in 2027.

Part of that will come via a new manager, but part of that will also come via some roster changes.

While I admittedly wish it wasn't the case, one of the best ways for the Mariners to infuse some new talent into the roster might be by trading one of their prized starting pitchers.

For instance, Logan Gilbert is headed into the final year of his contract. If the Mariners aren't prepared to give him a 5-7 year deal worth between $150 and $200 million, maybe they should move him. George Kirby has just two years left, and the same story applies. The Mariners could also move Emerson Hancock or Bryce Miller in the name of finding new talent.

I'm sure nobody wants to do this, but it just might be the best course of action. The Milwaukee Brewers are in the World Series and they've made a habit of trading stars on the verge of free agency. I'm sure nobody wanted to trade Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes or Freddy Peralta, but they did, and the machine has kept on moving.

With that in mind, we asked ESPN's Buster Olney about the idea of trading a starter this winter.

"It's going to be an awful time in November to actually execute trades because of the labor situation, because of the uncertainty. What's coming out the other side?

And I was looking at George Kirby today, for example. He, under the current rules, he isn't eligible for free agency until after 2028. Well, what if the rules change? What if there's free agency after five years?

And I can tell you this from talking with general managers, you know, they're saying if you're discussing a trade for someone like Kirby early in November, you don't know what you're paying for. Because you don't know if the first two weeks of the 2027 season are going to be lost. You don't know if the first two months, you don't know if the season's going to be lost.

And I've heard a range of predictions from people within baseball, and that makes it really, really difficult to assess value. What is George Kirby's value if you wind up losing a lot of next season?

Can you replicate that value? I think it's going to greatly complicate trades. And there might be, you know, very specific players: cheap relievers, or Tarik Skubal. You know, he might be an outlier as a market of one, the best free agent available, where they might be able to conduct business in November.

I had a team president predict this to me early in the year: There's not going to be a lot of business conducted in the month of November, in their opinions."

The Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET. Once we hit Dec. 2, the owners are expected to lockout the players, putting a freeze on business. While the implementation of a salary cap and salary floor is at the forefront of the issues, there will be many down-ballot issues that will complicate things as well. One of those, to Olney's point, is the idea of free agency and service time clocks changing.

However, before we get there, the Mariners need to find a new manager to replace Dan Wilson. It's already been reported that they are going to interview former Astros manager Joe Espada and are interested in former Twins manager Rocco Baldelli.