The numbers are on the Mariners' side, but you have to dig a little deeper before you get overly optimistic.
If you're looking for optimism with regards to the Seattle Mariners and the second-half of the season, there are likely three avenues that will make you feel good.
1) The Mariners are likely to get healthier, with Julio Rodriguez expected to return soon after the All-Star break and with Brendan Donovan hopefully not far behind him. On the bullpen front, both Matt Brash and Carlos Vargas are expected back in August. Seattle could also make trade deadline acquisitions to bolster its roster.
2) The rest of the American League is simply put, very average. While the Mariners have scuffled, and might continue to, the other teams around them are likely to scuffle as well.
3) The third reason for optimism is the schedule. According to Tankathon, the Mariners have the sixth-easiest schedule remaining in the second half, with an opponent winning percentage of just .490. This is good news because the Mariners are just 19-27 against teams over .500 this season.
Furthermore, the M's have played 47 games at home and 50 on the road thus far, meaning they have 34 at home down the stretch and 31 on the road. They've been far better at home, so any bit of extra homefield advantage is a good thing.
Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodriguez (44) reacts to getting hit in the back of the helmet by a thrown ball during the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at T-Mobile Park. Steven Bisig-Imagn ImagesBut the numbers don't tell the full story
Not to rain on a moment of optimism, but there are plenty of things to consider when it comes to the Mariners schedule, which makes it much more difficult than these numbers show.
1) For starters. How many teams that have poor records now will be much healthier when the Mariners play them? For instance, the Cincinnati Reds are just 43-52 and in last place in the National League Central, but could the Mariners get saddled with a now-healthy Hunter Greene and Chase Burns pitching matchups? Elly De La Cruz is back as well.
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) celebrates in the dugout after hitting a three-run home run during the sixth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at T-Mobile Park. Stephen Brashear-Imagn ImagesThe M's see the Boston Red Sox at the end of August and into early September. Is there a chance that Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony are back by then?
Seattle is battling it out with the Texas Rangers for the American League West crown, will the M's see the Rangers with a healthy Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford?
2) Then, how many teams that were average to below average in the first half make moves in the second half that make them better? Could the Mariners see a better version of the Toronto Blue Jays? The Red Sox? The Astros?
3) How many already-good teams make moves to improve? Could the Tampa Bay Rays really acquire Tarik Skubal, fortifying an already excellent rotation?
4) And don't forget the nightmare August schedule the M's are going to face: They'll play 15 games against teams currently in playoff position, not to mention that they get a nine-game road trip through New York, Milwaukee and Houston, which makes no sense, only to get another six-game East road trip through Toronto and Boston just a week later.
Of note
The newest edition of the 'Refuse to Lose Territory' podcast, featuring former M's outfielder Braden Bishop, is out now. You can listen here, or you can watch in the YouTube player below.
