The Seattle Mariners lost another heartbreaking contest against the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday night, falling 3-2 as Matt Olson broke a 2-2 tie with a solo home run to dead center field off M's closer Andres Munoz in the top of the ninth inning.

The home run continued an early season's worth of struggles for Munoz, who is now 3-3 with a bloated 6.00 ERA. He has already surrendered three home runs, more than he did all of last season (2), while allowing 10 earned runs, nearly as many (12) as he did all of last season.

Some M's fans want him removed from the closer's position. Some fans want him gone altogether. 

So, let's separate some fact from fiction.

With Matt Brash and Gabe Speier on the injured list, the M's bullpen is incredibly thin. No matter how you feel about Munoz right now, you have to acknowledge that the team doesn't have any better options at the moment.

Perhaps there's an opportunity for Jose Ferrer to get some saves if the right pocket of hitters is coming up, but given that Ferrer likely has to put out fires before the ninth inning in the absence of Speier and Brash, it's never a given he'll even be available for the ninth.

The biggest worry I've had about Munoz since last August was his control. He currently has seven walks in 15 innings, which is too high at 4.5 BB/9.

However, five of those walks came in a three-appearance span from April 10-15. I know you can't, but if you did take them out, he has just two in 12.1 innings, much more respectable.

This is what he does: He flirts with control issues. It remains my biggest worry with him, because it leads to more traffic and more chances to be scored upon. It also leads to higher pitch counts, which leads to more mistakes and more tired outings.

Munoz walked 28 batters in 62.1 innings last season, meaning that he's directly on pace to hit that number this season. (seven walks in 15 appearances). He walked 26 in 59.1 innings in 2024.

His walk rate this season is 10.6, which is actually just lower than the last two seasons (11.0 and 11.2).

However, the ability to throw consistent strikes and get ahead in counts has been lacking, which is also causing problems, as noted by Daniel Kramer of MLB.com:

Opposing hitters now have an .884 OPS vs. Muñoz when ahead in the count compared to a .381 OPS when behind.

Muñoz, who preferred not to speak postgame, entered play throwing first-pitch strikes 55.7% of the time, lower than both his career clip (61.3%) and the MLB average in 2026 (60.4%).

So, even if Munoz doesn't walk hitters, being behind in the count regularly is a problem for him.

Munoz has a 37.9 strikeout rate, which is on track to be his highest since 2022. His strikeout rate is in the 99th percentile of the sport.

His chase rate is elite (93rd percentile). His fastball velocity is in the 95th percentile. His whiff percentage is in the 100th percentile.

His slider (86.6 mph) is actually faster than it was last season (86.1). The average exit velocity against him is 87.4 mph, which is up a little bit over last season (86.1) and 2024 (86.3), but it's not a massive, massive gain, either.

Obviously, the balls that are getting put in play, are getting hit with more authority, and over the wall. His ground ball percentage is down from 50.0 percent to 41.2. His fly ball percentage is up from 21.7 to 26.5.

The home run percentage of 4.5 percent is significantly ahead of his career average of 1.8. He's never had a home run rate higher than 2.6 percent.

So, the thing that the Mariners have to figure out is this: Why is Munoz giving up home runs? Is he giving them up because he's gotten worse and easier to hit? Is he giving them up because he's behind in the count which makes him easier to hit? Or is he giving up home runs because of bad luck, small sample size, general reliever volatility and good hitters faced?

For instance. The three home runs that Munoz has given up?

Chase DeLauter, who might win American League Rookie of the Year, and who hit a pitch well off the outside corner out to deep left field.

Nick Kurtz, who did win AL Rookie of the Year in 2025 and owns an .814 OPS so far.

Matt Olson, who's 13 home runs, 15 doubles and 33 RBIs all lead baseball right now.

The two biggest issues for Munoz are throwing strikes consistently and giving up home runs. I have to think that the home run rate will go down naturally and positively regress, but I also have to think throwing strikes early in counts is directly related to it as well.

If Munoz can get ahead in the count more often and dictate terms of at-bats, I think he'll be successful, as Kramer's note proves. If he falls behind, like he fell behind 2-0 against Olson on Tuesday, the hitters will have a much greater chance.

Now, I'd be the most worried if he was walking the ballpark, and I don't believe that most hitters can do what DeLauter, Kurtz and Olson have done to him, but that said, not throwing consistent strikes - and not getting ahead - lead to tons of problems, and until that gets resolved, I'll continue to have some trepidation in end-of-game moments.

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