What are the options for the M's when it comes to the left fielder?
Seattle Mariners slugger Randy Arozarena hit two more home runs on Sunday afternoon in a devastating M's loss to the Athletics. With those blasts, he now has 25 home runs and 75 RBIs this season.
An All-Star earlier this summer, Arozarena is hitting .276 with 22 stolen bases as well. He's carried an .849 OPS and a 144 OPS+.
Simply put, on a Mariners team that has woefully underperformed on offense, he's been the best offensive player. By a longshot.
He's also a free agent at the end of the season, and he's set to cash in. But the question is, should the Mariners be the ones to try to pay him?
Let's take a look at a few things going on here.
Qualifying offer should be a guarantee
Though there's labor uncertainty coming, the qualifying offer system is reportedly going to stay in effect through this offseason.
The Mariners should absolutely use it, as Buster Olney of ESPN indicated to us recently. The Mariners need to offer Arozarena a one-year deal worth the QO total of about $22 million.
If he accepts, then he'll be back with the Mariners on a one-year deal. If he doesn't, and signs elsewhere, then the Mariners will get a high draft pick for his services.
It's a win-win situation in terms of "getting value."
The case for
The case for trying to bring back Arozarena beyond the qualifying offer is simple. He's been the best offensive player on a bad offensive team, and the Mariners will likely be even worse without him.
Guys who hit .276 don't grow on trees anymore. Guys who carry .849 OPS's don't grow on trees either.
He's also an exciting player and the M's need more excitement. Arozarena stole 19 bases before mid-June this season, but he's only stolen three bases since injuring his hamstring then.
If he's fully healthy again next season, or beyond, you could see him returning to more of a dual threat, which is something the M's need.
The case against
1) There are questions about Arozarena's effort, and there are also questions about his defense.
2) There are questions about his age, as he'll be 32 years old by the time the 2027 season begins.
3) There are questions about the money. How much will Arozarena get? Is he ticketed for a three-year deal that covers his age 32, 33 and 34 seasons? That would probably be palatable. But is he headed for a five-year deal that takes you through age 36? Do you want to be on the hook for a player with effort questions and defensive questions that will likely transition to a DH-only at some point in the life of that deal?
4) And what about the leadership angle? Is Arozarena a leader? Not really. It doesn't mean he's a bad teammate or a bad guy, but he tends to keep to himself. And do you want to shell out big money for a player with that reputation?
5) Mariners fans often wonder why the Mariners can't be more like the Milwaukee Brewers, or Tampa Bay Rays, mid-market teams that are always successful with a shoestring budget. Well, if you want to be like those teams, those teams would let Arozarena walk because of all the questions above.
The financial situation
Let's make this abundantly clear. No one knows exactly what the financial landscape of Major League Baseball will look like in 2027, because we don't know if there will be a salary cap or not. That matters a LOT in this regard. But we do know this much, so follow along.
1) Arozarena ($16 million), JP Crawford ($12 million), Victor Robles ($5 million), Luis Castillo ($24 million), Rob Refsnyder ($6.25 million), and Mitch Garver ($2 million) are all coming off the books in the offseason. There will be others that do as well, including whatever the M's assumed on Taylor Ward's contract when they acquired him at the trade deadline.
That means that (approximately) $70 million is coming off the books for the M's in the offseason. That feels like the Mariners should have some flexibility to do some things in the offseason.
2) However, it should be noted that:
A) Josh Naylor's salary goes up $6 million next year, knocking that $70 million down to $64 million.
B) Cal Raleigh's salary goes up $1 million next year, knocking it down to $63 million.
C) Colt Emerson's salary goes up $1 million next year, knocking it down to $62 million.
D) Seranthony Dominguez will make $10.5 million next season, which knocks it down to $51.5 million.
E) Andres Munoz will see his salary go up $2 million, knocking it down to $49.5 million.
F) There will significant raises in arbitration for Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryan Woo. Other arbitration-eligible players that will see raises are Gabe Speier, Bryce Miller, Brendan Donovan, Jose Ferrer, Dominic Canzone, Luke Raley and Eduard Bazardo.
Obviously, the futures of guys like Raley and Bazardo are unknown, but that $49.5 million will be cut into greatly through the arbitration process. I'm no arbitration expert, so venturing a guess on what will be left is not my department, but again, just know that that $49.5 million will be reduced.
Which leads back to the question, should this team, which has so many holes to fill, go and try to bring back Arozarena? That will eat up a significant portion of the remaining money, and there will still be holes to fill.
Other things to really consider
The labor situation is No. 1 on everyone's mind. If there's a salary cap and salary floor, the M's may have to spend additional money to hit the floor number, giving them more of a chance to sign Arozarena.
However, if the M's let Arozarena go and keep everyone else, is there enough money left to sign the kind of impact that they need around the roster?
Could the M's trade away pieces, shedding money in other places and giving them more room to bring back Arozarena?
These are all the things that the Mariners will be thinking about over the offseason, which is unfortunately coming sooner than anyone wants.
Seattle Mariners left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) celebrates with Lazaro Montes (99) in the dugout after hitting a solo home run against Athletics pitcher Hogan Harris (not pictured) during the eighth inning at Sutter Health Park. Dennis Lee-Imagn ImagesAnd what if the M's don't bring back Arozarena?
Michael Arroyo could have the inside track in left field. Or, the team could sign a third baseman and put Donovan in left field, assuming he's healthy.
Up next
The Mariners will take on the Los Angeles Angels on Monday at 6:38 p.m. PT. Seattle is 70-80 on the season.


