Oct 13, 2026 3:00 PM
Updated Oct 13, 2026 8:10 PM

The Mariners have a good chance land a high pick in next year's amateur draft.

There was very little for the Seattle Mariners to feel happy about at the conclusion of the 2026 season.

The Mariners finished the season 76-86 and missed out on the playoffs, just one season after making it to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, the closest the franchise has ever gotten to the World Series in its 50 years of existence.

The disappointing year resulted in the decision being made that Dan Wilson would no longer be Seattle's manager, and there's been speculation since on who the new skipper will be.

In addition to the team's managerial search, notable contributors such as shortstop/third baseman J.P. Crawford and left fielder Randy Arozarena are set to hit free agency.

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One of the few benefits to the '26 season was that it improved the Mariners' odds to land a high pick in the 2027 MLB Draft. Seattle has the eighth-best odds to land the No. 1 pick, per Tankathon.

Seattle has a 3.13% to land the No. 1 pick and a 28.7% chance to land a pick in the top six. The Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Angles and Athletics are tied with the likeliest odds to land the first overall pick at 19.10%.

The state of the farm system

Seattle has been considered to have one of the best minor league systems in baseball for years. The Mariners saw their overall farm system rankings go down across various publications, with the promotion and subsequent graduation of their top prospects entering the season, including shortstop Colt Emerson.

Several more top 100 prospects received their major league call-up, but haven't technically graduated yet: left-handed starting pitcher Kade Anderson, infielder/left fielder Michael Arroyo and outfielder Lazaro Montes.

Per MLB Pipeline's end-of-season rankings, Seattle has six prospects in the top 100: Anderson (No. 5), right-handed starting pitcher Ryan Sloan (No. 11), Arroyo (No. 41), Montes (No. 53), shortstop Felnin Celesten (No. 60) and outfielder Jonny Farmelo. Removing the prospects who have made their major league debuts, who will all likely be regulars on the major league roster in 2027, the Mariners have three top 100 prospects.

About this year's lottery

The MLB Draft lottery usually takes place during MLB Winter Meetings. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the MLB and MLB Players Association is set to expire Dec. 1.

It's unclear whether the MLB will push up the lottery to determine the order of the draft before the CBA expires, or if it will wait until a new labor agreement is reached.

Something to remember

The MLB proposed a change to the MLB amateur draft earlier this year as part of the CBA proposals with the MLBPA.

The changes would shorten the draft from 20 rounds to 12 and would change the minimum age of draft-eligible players to 20-years-old. That would mean that the draft pool would change from talented high schoolers and college players to athletes who, at their youngest, concluded their sophomore seasons.

Mariners recent lottery success

In the lottery for the 2025 MLB Draft back at winter meetings in 2024, Seattle had the second-lowest odds at landing the top pick at 0.53%. The Mariners beat the odds and drew the third overall pick in the draft, and used that to select Anderson.

Who could Seattle draft?

Assuming that there's no change in the talent pool that's eligible to be drafted, and the Mariners stay at where their odds place them, Baseball America has Tennessee right-handed pitcher Landon Mack as the eighth-best prospect available.

The publication had the following scouting report on Mack:

Mack spent his freshman season at Rutgers before transferring to Tennessee as a sophomore, where he made 12 starts in 2026 and pitched to a 4.67 ERA with 77 strikeouts to 25 walks over 61.2 innings. He’s an undersized righthander with a three-quarters arm slot and a crossfire finish. Mack works primarily off his sinker and cutter, but will feature a sweeper, curveball and changeup.

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