The Mariners will play a very difficult schedule over the final seven weeks of the season. How they navigate it will determine if they make the playoffs for the second straight year.
The Seattle Mariners will kick off a critical three-game series against the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday night at T-Mobile Park.
The Mariners and Tigers are separated by just 0.5 games in the standings, with the Mariners 2.0 games back in the wild card race and the Tigers at 2.5 games back, but the organizations are showing two different mindsets.
The Mariners went out and modestly bought at the trade deadline, acquiring Seranthony Dominguez and Taylor Ward, while the Tigers sold off Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize.
As a result, the Mariners have to feel good about their chances to take this series, and frankly, it's a must-have series before Seattle truly kicks off a nightmarish August stretch that sees them play vs. the Rays, at the Yankees, at the Brewers and at the Astros, as well as home vs. the Phillies and Cubs.
That's a stretch of six consecutive current playoff teams on the schedule, and the M's also have to contend with a nine-game road trip in there through New York, Milwaukee and Houston. Oh, and after the modest six-game homestand against the Phillies and Cubs is done? The Mariners also have to travel back east to play Toronto and a red-hot Boston club.
It won't be easy by any stretch, but if they can just navigate August, things open up greatly in September as the Mariners play seven games against the Los Angeles Angels, as well as series against the A's, Rockies and the sinking Rangers.
Another three-game series with Houston could help sway the division as well.
So what do the Mariners need to do over the final 49 games to make the playoffs? We tackled that on the most recent 'Refuse to Lose Territory' podcast:
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) waits for a pitch during an at-bat against the Toronto Blue Jays at T-Mobile Park. Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images"I went back and looked at last year. In my mind, August last year was a nightmare. In my mind, they were getting pummeled by Philly, they were getting pummeled by Tampa.
August last year, they went 15-12. I think they are going to need a similar 15-12 performance this year to stay afloat in the playoff race. I do.
They're already 2-0. Can they go 13-12 over the course of the rest of August? Can they play .500 ball through the rest of August? If they do that, I think they are going to be in a position to make the playoffs at the end of the year. I do.
And I didn't necessarily think that a couple of weeks ago, but when I really broke down everything, here is what I think. If they can go 15-12 in this brutal August—now 13-12 since they're already 2-0—if they can do that, they'll end August at 68-70. Still no great shakes to write home about.
In the final 24 games against a soft September, can they go 17-7 in September to end the season? Last year, they went 17-8. If they can do that, then I think 85 wins might be enough to get in the playoffs. Might be enough to get in the playoffs.
The kicker is that I think they need to put those records together, and they need to play well against Houston, who they've got six more times. They need to put up those records and be beating Houston, not have a bunch of losses come against Houston."
The Mariners and Tigers will play at 6:40 p.m. PT on Tuesday. Emerson Hancock will take the mound. Dominguez and Ward are expected to be active while Brendan Donovan is also expected to be brought back from the injured list.
Of note
The newest edition of the 'Refuse to Lose Territory' podcast is out, breaking down the Mariners trade deadline. You can listen here, or you can watch in the YouTube player below:
