The international slugger will have a deadline of Dec. 23 to sign a deal with an MLB team, and that deal could affect ones signed by other free agent first basemen.
The phrase "setting the market" is a common phrase during free agency.
Most of the time, that sentence is reserved for discussing the contracts for the top free agents. It's used to describe the deals that reset the overall free agency market for the future. They're the deals agents and players often reference when looking for a new contract.
The last two offseasons have featured several sport-altering deals. Shohei Ohtani signed a 10-years $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2023 and Juan Soto agreed to a 15-year, $765 million with New York Mets in 2024. There won't be a deal of that ilk this year.
Instead, an international player from Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball could set the market for first basemen, which could determine whether or not the Seattle Mariners bring back a priority free agent.
Corner infielder Munetaka Murakami was posted by the NPB's Tokyo Yakult Swallows on Friday, and he'll have a 45-day window to agree to terms on a contract with an MLB team. That window ends Dec. 23.
Murakami was one of the most prolific sluggers in NPB for the last eight seasons. Across his NPB career, he scored 535 runs in 892 games and hit 146 doubles, four triples and 246 home runs with 647 RBIs. He slashed .270/.394/.557 with a .951 OPS.
The Mariners have been tied to Murakami in the rumor mill. If there is truth to the rumors, he will be second priority to first baseman Josh Naylor, who general manager Justin Hollander said was the team's top focus in the offseason.
Murakami's deal might throw a wrench into those plans.
Last season, the market for first basemen was slow-moving. A large part of this was due to the lengthy contract negotiations involving Mets first baseman Pete Alonso. He was considered the best first baseman available and a lot of teams were waiting for his domino to fall before checking in with other players at his position.
Alonso didn't sign with New York until February. Without a benchmark set in free agency, several veteran first basemen were signed before Alonso got a deal.
Murakami was projected to earn an eight-year, $158.5 million contract ($19.8 million AAV) by Tim Britton of The Athletic.
Murakami is younger than Naylor (25-years-old vs. 28-years-old) and the former will earn a longer deal than the latter because of that.
If Murakami does earn a deal around or more than $20 million a year having never had an at-bat in the majors, that could influence the asking price for Naylor.
Naylor was acquired by Seattle in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He scored 32 runs in 54 games with the Mariners and hit 10 doubles and nine home runs with 33 RBIs. He slashed .299/.341/.490 with an .831 OPS. In the postseason, Naylor scored seven times in 12 games and hit two doubles and three homers with five RBIs. He slashed .340/.392/.574 with a .966 OPS.
Naylor has the resume to ask for more than Murakami, and it wouldn't be a shock if he uses the contract the international slugger earns as the floor for negotiations. There's also a chance that teams who lose out on the Murakami will turn towards Naylor and turn negotiations into a bidding war.
Even the highest contract projections for Naylor and Murakami will be within the Mariners' offseason budget ($30-35 million) but either player will take a sizable chunk out of the club's available payroll.
It's not uncommon for offseasons to take a much different shape than anticipated. And the future deals signed by Murakami and Naylor could create shock waves in the league. How Seattle adjusts could make or break 2026.
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